April 26, 2022
1.Ideological roadmap
Russia is under attack… Ukraine is without a future
War and its consequences
The decay of Europe
The new financial system
Self-reliance
Soviet means the best
2.Gas attack
3.Viscous battle
4.Potential for a new crisis
Ideological roadmap
The Kremlin’s “power behind the throne,” Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, gave an extensive interview to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Patrushev plays a crucial role in shaping the ideologies on which Russia’s foreign policy is based, so you should pay close attention to what he says. His words allow us to understand in what terms the problems are discussed in the Kremlin, how the modern world is seen through the loopholes of the Kremlin wall, what goals the Kremlin sets for itself, and what steps should be expected from the Kremlin in the future. Of course, not everything Patrushev says is immediately translated into action, but all his ideas are seriously discussed in the Putin cabinet.
Below, I give this interview’s main “constructive” theses, accompanying them with my brief comments. I leave aside the “lyrical speculations” about the future of European civilization, the nightmares that European countries will have to face because of the influx of Ukrainian refugees (whose number is expected to reach 10 million, the reasons for which Patrushev could not provide), the principles and methods of U.S. foreign policy, and many other issues. The full text of the interview can be found here.
1. Russia is under attack… Ukraine is without a future
The tragic scenarios of world crises, both in past years and today, are imposed by Washington in its desire to consolidate its hegemony by resisting the collapse of the unipolar world. The U.S. does everything to ensure that the other centers of a multipolar world do not even dare raise their heads, while our country not only dared but declared loudly that it would not play by the imposed rules. They tried to force Russia to give up its sovereignty, identity, culture, and independent foreign and domestic policy. This is not an approach that we have a right to accept.
Once again, we hear the thesis that the U.S. wants to subjugate Russia, which is a cornerstone of the Kremlin’s foreign policy philosophy. Patrushev openly admits that the inhabitants of the Kremlin are infected with the most robust virus of the Versailles syndrome, the syndrome of an offended and humiliated nation.
To suppress Russia, the Americans, using their proxies in Kyiv, decided to create an antipode of our country, cynically choosing Ukraine, trying to divide what is essentially a single nation. If anything unites the people living in Ukraine today, it is fear of the atrocities of nationalist battalions. Therefore, the result of the policy of the West and the Kyiv regime under its control can only be the disintegration of Ukraine into several states.
The thesis that Ukraine has no statehood and has no right to exist within its current borders sounds frank this time. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly used it, and we can assume that this is how the Kremlin sees the future arrangement of Europe: At a minimum, without Ukraine in modern borders; at a maximum, without Ukraine at all.
2. War and its consequences
I have noticed that in his speeches after the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, Putin constantly speculates about the causes and goals of the war, each time talking to himself and convincing himself. This question—the causes and objectives of the war—has never found a clear answer in the Kremlin. Although the journalist asked Patrushev this question directly to his face, the latter could not give an intelligible answer.
A special military operation has specific goals, the achievement of which depends not just on the well-being, but on the lives of millions of people, on saving the people of the LNR and DNR from the genocide that the Ukrainian neo-Nazis have been committing for eight years. In its time, Hitler’s fascism dreamed of destroying the entire Russian population. Today, its followers, according to Hitler’s precepts, are blasphemously trying to do so with the hands of the Slavs. Russia will not let this happen.
Speaking of de-Nazification, our goal is to defeat the bridgehead of neo-Nazism created by the efforts of the West near our borders. The necessity of demilitarization is caused by the fact that Ukraine, saturated with weapons, poses a threat to Russia, including the development and use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.
Patrushev categorically denies that Russia is to blame for the negative consequences of war on the world economy, which he sees clearly. It is not Russia’s aggressive actions that are to blame, but Western sanctions, the reason for which Patrushev does not seem to understand.
Against the background of anti-Russian sanctions, the world is gradually sinking into an unprecedented food crisis. Tens of millions of people in Africa or the Middle East will verge on starvation because of the West.
Patrushev can see who benefits from this war: The U.S. defense industry.
The U.S. and European military-industrial complex is rejoicing because, thanks to the crisis in Ukraine, it has no shortage of orders. Not surprisingly, unlike Russia, which is interested in completing a special military operation as soon as possible and minimizing losses on all sides, the West is determined to drag it out at least to the last Ukrainian.
3. The decay of Europe
This [the collapse of the American-centric world] is a reality in which it is necessary to live and build an optimal line of behavior. In this regard, Russia has chosen the path of comprehensive protection of its sovereignty, firmly defending its national interests, cultural and spiritual identity, traditional values, and historical memory.
Our spiritual and moral values allow us to remain ourselves, be true to our ancestors, and preserve the individual, society, and the state. Europeans, for example, have made a different choice. They have adopted so-called liberal values, although, in fact, it is neoliberalism. It promotes the priority of the private over the public, individualism, which suppresses love for the Fatherland, the gradual withering away of the state. It is now clear that Europe and European civilization have no future with such a doctrine.
4. The new financial system
This decision [to place foreign reserves] proved to be unjustified from the point of view of financial security of the state...
For the sovereignty of any national financial system, its means of payment must be of domestic value and price stability, not tied to the dollar. Experts are now working on a project proposed by the scientific community to create a dual circuit currency and financial system. In particular, it is suggested to determine the value of the ruble, which should be secured by both gold and a group of goods, which are currency values, to put the ruble exchange rate in line with the real purchasing power parity.
The journalist tried to object: “Such ideas have been voiced before. However, several experts stated that they run counter to the conclusions of economic theory,” but received a harsh rebuff.
They [these ideas] do not go against the conclusions of economic science but against the findings of Western economic textbooks. The West has unilaterally appropriated an intellectual monopoly on the optimal arrangement of society and has been using it for decades. Let me remind you that the shock reforms of the 1990s in our country were carried out strictly according to American methods. The fascination of our entrepreneurs, who came out of that era, with market mechanisms alone, without considering the specifics of our country, is a risk factor.
It looks like Patrushev is proposing to switch to a floating ruble exchange rate, the rate of which would be determined not by supply and demand but by the value of a basket of commodities (for example, 50% for oil, 20% for gas, 15% for gold, and 5% each for steel, nickel, and aluminum). In terms of theory, this concept could be called a “floating commodity standard” (by analogy with the gold standard); however, in terms of practice, it is poorly understood how this would help the Russian economy or how it would help the Bank of Russia in placing foreign exchange reserves, which will still be formed in global convertible currencies.
5. Self-reliance
We are not against the market economy and participation in the world production chains, but we understand the West lets other countries be its partner only when it is beneficial to it. Therefore, the most critical condition of Russia’s economic security is the reliance on the domestic potential of the country and the structural restructuring of the national economy on a modern technological basis...
The tasks and priorities [for import substitution] have been set absolutely correctly, and we will continue to implement them. Another thing is that we need to improve the discipline of their implementation, including among the relevant agencies.
If all the President’s instructions on import substitution had been executed in time, we could have avoided many of the Russian economy’s problems today...
Russia must expand the range of domestic high-tech products. It is essential to promote domestic developments in production as soon as possible. We will pay special attention to qualitative changes in selecting scientific personnel and evaluating their performance. Russian science must become the leading productive force, one of our country’s development drivers. I am confident that we will solve all the problems that have arisen due to sanctions restrictions.
Patrushev did not deny the negative impact of sanctions (however, he did not acknowledge it) and the technological backwardness of Russia. However, his words clearly show the Gosplan approach, which has become the dominant economic policy of the Kremlin: It is necessary to declare the goals, and if they were not achieved, then it is all the fault of the bureaucrats, who did not implement the correct decisions of the President.
6. Soviet means better
Washington and Brussels make no secret that their sanctions are aimed at the material and spiritual impoverishment of the Russians. Destroying our education by imposing so-called progressive models of education is as strategic for Westerners as, for example, bringing NATO closer to our borders...
The current situation proves the need to uphold Russia’s traditional spiritual and moral values and reform the education and enlightenment system with the return of the historically justified advantages of the domestic school. I am still convinced that the Soviet school of education was historically the most advanced and progressive globally, and the movement forward should be carried out with this in mind...
It is necessary to pay more attention to the development of logical thinking, to form steady knowledge and the ability to make independent decisions, and not just to put crosses in the tests.
I am ready to second Patrushev’s words that in the process of education, it is necessary “to pay more attention to the development of logical thinking, to form steady knowledge and the ability to make independent decisions.” Still, being well acquainted with the practice of the Soviet school, I am ready to claim that it never taught that.
Gas attack
On March 31, Vladimir Putin signed a decree stipulating that payments for Russian gas supplied after April 1 should be made in rubles.
Polish gas company PGNiG and Bulgarian Bulgargaz refused to pay under the new procedure. In its statement, the Polish company said that the decree is not binding for it, and there are no grounds for stopping supplies under the “Yamal contract” as PGNiG does not have overdue debts to Gazprom and meets all payment obligations on time.
Bulgargaz stated that “the company has fully fulfilled its obligations and has made all payments required under this contract on time, strictly and following its clauses.” In addition, the Bulgarian Energy Ministry said, “The new two-stage payment procedure proposed by Russia does not comply with the current contract until the end of this year and creates significant risks for Bulgaria, including making payments without receiving any gas supplies from the Russian side.”
Gazprom Export has notified both companies that gas supplies will be stopped from 9:00 Moscow time on April 27.
Viscous battle
Russian forces continue their offensive in the Donbas, but it has not yielded notable successes so far. Counterattacking strikes by the Ukrainian military have had a deterrent effect, forcing attackers to exercise increased caution. In addition, despite Putin’s announcement that he would not continue to try to gain control of the Azovstal complex, Russian forces have not stopped their attack.
At the same time, the Russian army continues its offensive in the south, trying to establish complete control over the territory of the Kherson region. (The Russian Defense Ministry said tonight that the Russian army had accomplished this mission.) If the offensive is successful, it is to be expected that a quasi-referendum will be held there to proclaim a new independent Kherson People’s Republic. However, as in the Donbas, given the Russian army’s limited capabilities, primarily in human resources, counterattacking actions by the Ukrainian army forced the Russian military to retreat or go on the defensive.
The Russian army continues to launch missile strikes against infrastructure facilities in different regions of Ukraine (bridges, power plants, oil refineries, airfields...); in recent days, the Ukrainian army has begun retaliatory strikes against facilities on Russian territory (the previous day, two oil products storage facilities in the Bryansk Region were hit).
Potential for a new crisis
A Russian missile destroyed a railroad and road bridge on the road connecting Odessa and the Romanian border. This bridge is the main transport artery providing connections to three districts of the Odessa region—Izmail, Bolgrad, and Belgorod-Dnistrovsk. This bridge is close to the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), which could become a new hotspot, as hinted by General Rustam Minnekaev.
On Monday, PMR police reported that several shots were fired into the republic’s state security ministry building from a hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher. In addition, two explosions were reported on the territory of the air fleet of the TMR Defense Ministry. On Tuesday, police reported two more explosions that knocked out two antennae of a radio center broadcasting Russian radio. The PMR leader Vadim Krasnoselsky said the first conclusions of the investigative measures showed that the traces of the organizers of the explosions in Transnistria led to Ukraine.
Transnistria, 60% of whose residents are Russians and Ukrainians, had been seeking secession from Moldova even before the USSR collapsed, fearing that Moldova would join Romania on a wave of nationalism. In 1992, after a failed attempt by the Moldovan authorities to solve the problem by force, Transnistria became a territory essentially beyond Chisinau’s control. Russia maintains a group of troops on PMR territory (about 6,500 soldiers), despite repeated calls by the Moldovan government for their withdrawal, and provides financial support to the PMR authorities.