August 11, 2022
Q&A
Back in the fight!
The President (mis)understood
Prime Minister bets on construction
What is the best way to regulate prices?
Is it possible to hit an ally?
There will be spares. Not very soon though
Without witnesses
Mosaic
Editorial
Q&A
From Patrick Nicolet
At least , unlike in the West , Russia got a law against spreading fake ( bullshit ) news . This would be the welcome in the west against the almost majority of medias , social medias & governments agencies as well ..!! A sure way to recover money without raising taxes …!!
Dear Patrick!
I need to clarify the nature of the "nature of the “fake news law”; should do it earlier… The official name of the law is typically bureaucratic in Russia - Amendments to the Criminal Code. The law declares the “public dissemination of knowingly false information about the use of the armed forces of the Russian Federation” as a felony. According to the law, knowingly false information is any information about the war in Ukraine except officially published by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Quotations of international media, journalists’ reports, pictures, and videos - if they provide something contradicting the official version - are declared fake by prosecutors and accepted by the courts.
Thus, it is not a law fighting with fakes but a law fighting prohibiting freedom of speech and freedom of dissemination of information, i.i., a law on military censorship.
Back in the fight!
Alexei Navalny, incarcerated in a maximum-security penal colony, has found a way to continue his political activities. He founded a trade union of prisoners and colony employees, Promzona (Industrial Zone), after facing daily violations of prisoners’ labor rights.
According to the working conditions, the sewing workplace should be equipped with a swiveling chair with an adjustable backrest. In reality, all convicts in the sewing unit sit on tabourets. Mine was 42 cm high. It was unbearable, a real torment, and after a couple of years, guaranteed a severe back condition.
Without scandal or fuss, our glorious union entered into a constructive dialogue with the employer, the prison system. I (with the help of FBK lawyers, of course) legally proved that we should have chairs with backs.
At first, it caused bewilderment. A convict has to suffer, right? Then they even started to lie that we are not sitting on tabourets, but on chairs with a back (they worked it out, right?), and then—ta-da!—they brought chairs with a back into the shop and took the damn stools away.
Initially, the administration of the penal colony where Navalny is being held prohibited the creation of a union, calling it “illegal.” Navalny was even given a “warning about an imminent crime.” But according to lawyers, Russian law is formally in Navalny’s favor: To form a trade union, you need only two conditions—to be employed and be at least 14 years old. Navalny, who works in the sewing room of the penal colony, meets these criteria.
Having had a little success in the room where Navalny works, Promzona intends to push for the replacement of stools with chairs in the rest of the labor rooms and other Russian colonies.
This week, Navalny filed a lawsuit against the colony over the management’s refusal to disclose information about the customer of the products the politician makes in the colony. The colony’s administration cited the refusal as a “lack of customer consent to disseminate information about the manufacture of their products in correctional facilities.” Navalny and his lawyers say there is no legal basis for refusing to provide information.
Unlike the stooges case, where Navalny pointed to a direct violation of the existing instruction, I am not sure the politician will be able to succeed in a Russian court, which is willing to justify any action by a representative of the Russian authorities. But the main conclusion is that Alexei Navalny is back in the political fray.
The President (mis)understood
At a July 26 meeting with President Putin, Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov said Russia will withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) project after 2024.
...we will fulfill all our obligations to our partners, but the decision and withdrawal from this station [the ISS] after 2024 has been made. I think that by that time, we will start to form a Russian orbital station...
“Good,” Vladimir Putin responded. Obviously, Borisov told the President exactly what he wanted to hear—Russia would go its way, and there was no place in his company for any cooperation with the West, which offends Russia. However, Roskosmos is well aware that Russia has no alternative to the ISS and cannot appear in the near future.
A few days after the meeting of Borisov and Putin, the Multilateral Coordinating Council of the ISS held a meeting, attended by representatives of NASA, Roskosmos, the Canadian Space Agency, the European Space Agency, and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. The meeting resulted in a statement that all countries intend to continue working together after 2024.
Council members, whose job is to coordinate the International Space Station, also discussed extending the work of the ISS beyond 2024. All council members confirmed that they will continue to work with their governments to coordinate an extension of the station’s operation beyond 2024.
Yuri Borisov has a good command of the Russian language. Sergey Krikalev, Executive Director of the state corporation for manned-flights programs, explained his manager’s words this way:
“...what was said about Russia leaving after 2024 means that there will be no drastic steps until 2024. And 2025 is after 2024, 2028 is also after 2024, and 2030. The specific decision on withdrawal will be made based on its technical condition.”
I wonder if the Russian President has figured out the linguistic intricacies.
Prime Minister bets on construction
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that the Russian authorities are consciously financing increased volumes in the overhaul of highways. According to the Prime Minister, this reduces logistics costs, creates new jobs, and increases domestic demand for raw materials.
“Now, it is essential in conditions of external pressure to form exactly the reserves related to services, building materials, and resources on the Russian Federation’s territory. This is additional support for the whole economy of the country.”
I was surprised that the Prime Minister did not mention import substitution, the need for which will increase yearly. Today half of the fleet of road construction equipment in Russia is imported, and on the key positions (pavers, rollers, road cutters), from 60% to 90% is imported from “unfriendly countries.” According to the Association of European Business in Russia, sales of road construction equipment imported from “unfriendly countries” in the second quarter of this year fell by more than a third compared to last year, while imports of new machines fell much more.
What is the best way to regulate prices?
In the face of a poor harvest, Russian agrarians have decided to return to pressuring the government to limit fertilizer price increases.
A year ago, the government urged fertilizer producers to freeze domestic prices for their products, backing up the request with the introduction of quotas on exports of nitrogen fertilizers starting December 1 and ammonium nitrate beginning February 1. After Russian troops invaded Ukraine and imposed restrictions on Russian fertilizer imports to Europe, Russian fertilizer production and exports began to decline rapidly, and the government decided to show mercy: The Antimonopoly Service agreed to a smooth schedule of price increases until the end of this year.
This week, Deputy Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut stated that amid the declining quality and cost of agricultural products in Russia, the fertilizer availability index is falling, which should be a reason to review the parameters of the approved price indexation. According to Lut, the optimal solution for Russian farmers would be to link the cost of fertilizers to the composite price index for agricultural products.
Is it possible to hit an ally?
The Union of Potato and Vegetable Market Participants suggested that the Ministry of Agriculture raise import duties on potato flakes to make chips and mashed potatoes.
Today, imports account for just under 30% of the total consumption of potato flakes and are subject to a 5% duty. In 2021, the producer price for potato flakes jumped by almost 50%, and during the first half of this year, it increased by another quarter. Due to the strengthening of the ruble, imported flakes have become cheaper, and Russian products have lost their competitiveness. Potato producers demand that the government raise the import duty to 32% to protect their positions. The main problem for the government is that the price for potatoes imported from “unfriendly countries” at the current level of duties by 25%-30% exceeds the price for Russian products. The main competitor for Russian agrarians is potatoes from allied Belarus.
Will Vladimir Putin want to open a potato front in relations with his ally, whose importance has increased dramatically due to the outbreak of war against Ukraine?
There will be spares. Not very soon though
After French Renault became a shareholder in AvtoVAZ in 2008, the Russian company upgraded its lineup and began actively using parts produced by Renault’s suppliers worldwide. After the French company decided to leave Russia and sold its shares in AvtoVAZ to the Russian government for 1 ruble, it turned out that there were more than 2 million cars on the roads of Russia, for which AvtoVAZ still had warranty obligations. The deal with the Russian government called for Renault to agree with AvtoVAZ to supply spare parts, as it was clear that parallel imports would not be able to solve a problem of this scale.
This week, LADA Image, a subsidiary of AvtoVAZ, has become Renault’s successor in supplying spare parts to dealers. The company announced that because of the ruined logistics, it could not organize the supply of the entire range of spare parts in a short time and asked the dealers to be sympathetic to this.
Without witnesses
Today, the court in Moscow decided to place Maria Ovsyannikova under house arrest as a preventive measure.
Ovsyannikova was taken to court accompanied by eight guards. Being in a glass “aquarium,” she unfolded a poster proclaiming, “Let the murdered children dream of you at night,” after which bailiffs blocked her, and the judge demanded that photo correspondents be removed from the hall. And after that, the investigator requested to close the session, explaining that “not all the evidence in the case has been collected; it is necessary to maintain the secrecy of the investigation.” The lawyer for Ovsyannikova said that she didn’t deny the picket so that the case materials couldn’t be kept secret; however, the judge agreed with the position of the investigation. In 15 minutes, the judge left to make a decision, and in another 20 minutes, she announced her decision: House arrest until December 9.
Mosaic
Oil shipments to the Czech Republic via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline won’t resume for some time. The owner of the biggest Czech refineries is the Polish PKN Orlen, which complicates the search for a solution to the problem of paying for Ukrainian transit. Czech Industry and Trade Minister Josef Sikela said that Prague and Warsaw are jointly looking for a supply solution that would suit the parties from a legal and technical point of view. At the same time, the Minister said the country’s oil reserves provide its demand for 90 days.
The Kremlin forum of young political scientists, “Digoria,” began on Wednesday in the Moscow suburbs. At the opening, Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Head of the presidential administration, personally explained what the Kremlin is expecting from representatives of the political professions: They should satisfy society’s need to take pride in their country, convince young people that the crisis is a time of opportunity, and continue working to consolidate Russian society. All forum participants were divided into “factories”; within the “factories,” young political scientists were divided into “workshops” in which they would form an “image of the future,” discuss the “Ukrainian issue,” strengthen “family values,” and develop their skills in “hybrid warfare” and the formation of a “proactive agenda.”
Editorial (Need to break)
I will not hide it: Since February 24, after the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, the nature of my project has changed fundamentally. The news flow has shrunk significantly, and much of the information I share about what is happening in Russia is related to negative processes in the country, society, and economy.
I often hear that August is a month of catastrophes and upheavals in Russia. I would like to believe this year, we will not see evidence of this.
During the next three weeks, my access to communications will be limited, and I won’t be able to maintain a regular work regime. Of course, I will not stop following what is happening in Russia, and if there are any significant events there, I will respond to them with my commentary. But there will be no daily broadcasts until the end of August. As compensation, I promise to send my paid subscribers a big text with an analysis of the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy at the end of this break.
See you soon!