Blackmail. Very serious talks are to happen. Bye-bye Monroe!

November 12, 2021

Ready to be an actor

Russia is known for its theatre school. One of its founders, Konstantin Stanislavsky, created the Moscow Art Theater and led it for many years. One of the hallmarks of this theatre is the “theatrical pause” when an actor falls silent and makes the audience freeze and hold their breath. This technique can be done only by outstanding actors who feel the audience’s mood and know precisely how to catch the moment for such a pause and how long to hold it.

Vladimir Putin did not study at drama school, but undoubtedly he received actor’s lessons while studying at the Higher School of the KGB in 1979. He knows what a “theatrical pause” is and has demonstrated that he knows how to use it.

The escalation of the situation on the border of Poland and Belarus and the outright reluctance of Alexander Lukashenko to answer the phone calls of the leaders of European countries left the latter no choice but to start a dialogue with Putin. They have authorized Angela Merkel to do this. On the one hand, she is fluent in Russian and understands better than all European leaders who Putin is and what drives him. On the other hand, she will soon leave the political scene, which means she can use the harshest words without fear of ruining her personal relationship with the Russian president.

On the evening of November 10, Merkel called the Kremlin. The “instrumentalization of migrants by the Belarusian regime was inhuman and unacceptable,” she told Putin. The Russian president [sarcastically –SA] suggested starting direct discourse between the EU and Minsk, according to a statement from the Kremlin. Requests to meet with the Belarusian regime have been turned down by European politicians. Merkel insisted Putin deliver a European message to Lukashenko. “And call me back as soon as you talk to him,” said the chancellor. Her anticipation was to receive the call the same evening. 

But...nothing happened that evening and that night. Nor did a call appear Thursday until late afternoon. Moreover, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman being asked whether another talk between the two leaders was planned on Wednesday evening, said this information “had nothing to do with reality.”

A new phone conversation between Putin and Merkel is possible, and the Kremlin will inform when it takes place, added Peskov.

Pause...

Lukashenko’s blackmail

We do not know whether Putin called Lukashenko after the conversation with Angela Merkel. But Alexander Lukashenko decided to answer Europe live, without intermediaries. He stated that he was ready to toughly respond to possible sanctions from the EU countries and Poland threatening a complete border closure.

“We are heating Europe; they are still threatening us that they will close the border. And if we turn off gas flow?… If they shut it [the border] down, let them shut it down. But the Foreign Ministry must warn everyone in Europe: If only they impose additional sanctions on us, “indigestible” and “unacceptable” for us, we must respond,” Lukashenko said. “What if we close the [road] transit through Belarus? It will not pass through Ukraine: the Russian border is shut there. There are no roads through the Baltics. If we close it for the Poles and, for example, for the Germans, what will happen then? We must not stop at any point while defending our sovereignty and independence,” he warned.    

After a while, a message appeared on the Kremlin’s website that Putin had called Merkel and said unequivocally that a solution to the refugee crisis was possible only through a direct dialogue between the European Union and Lukashenko.

I doubt that Lukashenko is ready to go to the end in his blackmail and stop the closure of the Belarusian border for European trucks. Of course, European companies will suffer from this, but the Russian economy will suffer even more. It is unlikely that Vladimir Putin needs new economic problems today.

Of course, Lukashenko can stop the transit of Russian gas to Europe. But first, he must coordinate this action with Gazprom (that is, with Putin) to avoid a critical increase in pressure in the gas pipeline. Second, Gazprom (i.e., the Kremlin) is unlikely to take responsibility for the non-fulfillment of contractual obligations to European companies. All he needs to do is increase gas transit through Ukraine.

But the task of blackmail on the part of Lukashenko is to enter negotiations with him. Most likely, they will start soon.

A “very serious talks” are to happen

In her phone conversation with Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel decided to discuss one more issue. The unconstructive position of the Russian Foreign Minister, who categorically refused to participate at the Normandy Four meeting on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Vladimir Putin listened to the chancellor’s request and gave the necessary instructions to Sergey Lavrov. However, the Russian president “drew attention to the destructive policy of Kyiv, which increasingly relies on forceful methods, including the use of drones in violation of the Minsk Package of Measures,” the Kremlin said.

Sergey Lavrov, in his turn, revealed his cards in advance, announcing that during the meeting in Paris there would be a conversation about “...responsibility [of France and Germany] for the behavior of their charges in Kyiv. I mean the regime of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky... We will have a very serious talks on this topic.”

As the old Soviet joke says, you can’t sell an elephant with such a mood. For what purpose France and Germany insist on a meeting in the Normandy format remains a big mystery.

Gas export recovered. A little bit

On November 10, the pumping of Russian gas increased by 5.7% compared to the previous day and by more than 38% compared to November 1. Gazprom has increased gas pumping through Ukraine and through Belarus. This does not mean Russian gas supplies to Europe have risen sharply—they just reached the average for October, remaining 15% below the September level and 25% below the previous year’s level.

Strong political declaration

An unexpectedly harsh political statement was made in Moscow on the eve of the plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. The head of Rosprirodnadzor (federal agency supervising the implementation of environmental regulation), Svetlana Radionova, spoke at the Federation Council (the high chamber of the Russian parliament) and accused China of causing damage to Russian nature. She stated that one of the pressing issues in her agency’s work is the containment of the export of rare and endangered plants (their list is recorded in the Red Book) from Russia by Chinese citizens. “Now let’s be clear—our ‘big Chinese brother’ just vacuums everything that can be obtained,” she said.     

Radionova supported the bill, prepared in the Federation Council, introducing criminal liability for the collection of plants listed in the Red Book.

The direct accusation of Chinese businessmen in conducting inappropriate business in Russia will undoubtedly become the subject of discussion by Xi and Putin. But I am interested in something else: Will a Russian official be punished for using the term “big brother” to describe relations between Russia and China? Or is it already officially enshrined in the internal lexicon of Russian politicians?

Overcoming Monroe doctrine

Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of Argentina Alberto Fernández. One of the topics of conversation is quite apparent—Argentina is actively using the Russian Sputnik V vaccine to fight the COVID pandemic, and the country needs new batches for booster shot.

The second topic of the conversation was related to the growing financial crisis in Argentina. The repayments to the IMF scheduled for the next year total about $18 billion, and Argentina will not be able to do this without the help of new lenders. For the Argentine president, Russia is undoubtedly one of the options for preventing a new default. 

Although the foreign exchange reserves of the Russian government exceed $191 billion, it is unlikely Putin will agree to satisfy all of Argentina’s needs. According to my estimates, they can talk about $5 billion-$6 billion, and it remains unclear only what the Kremlin will ask for in return. Unilateral Argentina withdrawal from Monroe doctrine?

Scared of COVID

Vladimir Putin has an unexplained personal fear of the pandemic. He is much less worried about low vaccination rates or high mortality rates in Russia. His face shows no emotion hearing reports from his lieutenants that the number of deaths from COVID in the country has set another record. But, fearing for his personal health and, apparently, not entirely trusting the Russian vaccine, he continues to live in maximum self-isolation. He practically stopped appearing in the Kremlin. Most of his meetings are held online. If he appears at public events, the participants are at a considerable distance from the Russian president. Those who are allowed a personal meeting with him must self-isolate for at least 10 days.

It’s hard to live in such a regime. It is hard for Putin too. He, like many people, dreams of the time when the pandemic is over, and it will be possible to return to life without COVID restrictions.

The other day, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova almost destroyed his dream of returning to everyday life. What she said to the Russian president shocked him, and he demanded to publicly say the same thing. On November 10, during an online meeting between Putin and the government, Golikova said that the low vaccination rates in Russia could lead to the reality that “... many of the efforts that have been made so far may go down the drain.” According to her, to achieve herd immunity in Russia, almost 23 million people need to be vaccinated in a short time (currently, their number is 58 million). “...if those figures...are not reached by us shortly, in the next month, then...we will have to go to the round of revaccination [booster shots].” Judging by the words of Golikova, the level of protection after vaccination with Sputnik-V at some point in time begins to decline rapidly. To protect against a pandemic, there is an urgent need to receive a booster shot.       

Golikova’s address was broadcast on state television channels and was addressed to all citizens of Russia. However, I have severe doubts that this statement will change the negative attitude of half of Russians toward the idea of ​​vaccination. Russians have long ceased to believe officials’ words, and Tatyana Golikova has made her entire career in bureaucratic corridors. She does not have a medical education, cannot master professional terminology, and, not being a public politician, does not know how to communicate with voters. The entire anti-COVID team of Vladimir Putin does not have their own Dr. Anthony Fauci, an epidemiology specialist who would consistently and regularly explain the medical aspects of the problem to both Putin and the population.

In my opinion, the absence of such a person is one of the reasons for the high level of indifference to the COVID problem among Russians.

New COVID restrictions are coming

Immediately after the last meeting on the pandemic with Vladimir Putin, the government announced it was preparing a bill on the mandatory presence of QR codes confirming immunity to coronavirus infection when visiting public places, travelling by train, and flying by air. At the same time, the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that this issue was not discussed at a meeting with the president. 

Forgive me, but as Konstantin Stanislavsky said, seeing the unconvincing performance of an actor: “I don’t believe it!”

No space for truth

The Prosecutor General’s Office of Russia filed a lawsuit requesting to liquidate the Memorial Human Rights Society. The court session will take place on November 25.

Memorial was founded in 1989 by Andrei Sakharov, and its activities were aimed at disclosing and disseminating information related to the political terror in the Soviet Union in 1920-1950. It is well known today that the main driving force behind the massive repression of that time was the political police, which later became known as the KGB. Boris Yeltsin did not dare to liquidate this organization; he considered that it would be enough to separate several blocks from it and rename it as the FSB.  

On December 31, 1999, Yeltsin resigned, appointing former KGB lieutenant colonel Vladimir Putin as acting president of Russia, who today does not like the truth about the organization he worked for. Those who tell the truth cannot live in peace in Russia.

No one can be more popular

On July 9, 2020, Governor Sergei Furgal was arrested in Khabarovsk. Arrests of regional officials in Russia happen occasionally, and they rarely attract much public attention. This time it was not like that. In 2018, Furgal won the election defeating the incumbent governor, actively supported by Putin and the Kremlin. He managed to consolidate the protest vote, which rose against the increase in the retirement age and the VAT rate in Russia. Both of these decisions were announced by Putin a few weeks after his next inauguration and sparked public outcry. In September 2018, candidates supported by the Kremlin lost in four regions in the gubernatorial elections (out of 22 gubernatorial elections that year). Khabarovsk was one of these regions.

In 2005, Furgal, engaged in business, was elected a deputy of the regional duma. In 2007 and 2011, he became a deputy of the State Duma on the list of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia. In 2016 he won elections to the State Duma in one of Khabarovsk electoral districts. The charismatic politician knew how to communicate with voters, understood their needs and desires. After becoming governor, he focused his primary efforts on cutting budget expenditures, primarily by reducing spending on the regional administration, and the governor’s support rating began to snowball.

In September 2019, Furgal topped his party’s roster in the regional parliament and city Duma elections and led the party to a landslide victory. In the regional parliament, the Liberal Democratic Party won 30 out of 36 seats, and in the city duma, 34 out of 35. The Kremlin realized the situation was threatening to spiral out of control. In November 2019, an audio recording of a conversation between people with voices similar to Sergei Furgal and Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev, who oversees this region, appeared on the internet. During the discussion, Trutnev said: “By the numbers, the story looks very sad. The governor’s rating [in the region] is growing, while the president’s rating is falling. Furgal said that these were the actions of provocateurs, specifically “opposing Moscow and the Khabarovsk Territory,” and said he plans to fight this situation. 

However, it was already too late. On November 20, Furgal’s former business partner was arrested on charges of murder in 2004. While in prison, he testified against Furgal, who was arrested in early July 2020. The arrest of the popular governor sparked massive protests in Khabarovsk and the region that lasted more than four months and ended only with the onset of the cold Siberian winter.

The trial of the former governor is to begin shortly. Under Russian law, he should be tried in Khabarovsk, the scene of the alleged crime. However, fearing a resumption of mass protests, the Kremlin ordered that this be prevented. The prosecutor’s office filed a demand with the Supreme Court to move the place of the hearing, arguing that Furgal could “influence public opinion.”

It is not surprising that the judge who made the decision satisfied the demand of the prosecutor’s office, adding that “the jury trial in Khabarovsk, as requested by the defense, cannot lead to an objective verdict.” The judge added that the accused are being held in Moscow prisons, their defenders live in the capital, and witnesses will come to the trial from different parts of the country. Therefore, the Moscow suburb of Lyubertsy will be a convenient place for organizing the trial.

The courthouse is located 20 km from the prison where the former governor is located. The road on the day of the court session will take at least one-and-a-half hours one way.