Challenges accepted. To the stars! Risk reduction. Protecting China’s interests!
January 26, 2022
Challenge accepted
Russian authorities have accepted the challenge of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who gave a lengthy interview for TIME magazine while in detention, and his team released the second part of the investigation into Putin’s “palace” on the Black Sea. The politician himself was put on the list of organizations and individuals involved in terrorism and extremist activities. According to Russian legislation, banks are obliged to freeze the accounts of the individuals on the list and suspend their services. In addition to Navalny, several of his closest supporters were also put on this list after they were indicted for extremism, and the criminal proceedings were opened against them.
At the same time, the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) submitted a motion to the district court in Moscow to cancel the suspended sentence for Alexei Navalny’s brother, Oleg. In the so-called sanitary case, Oleg Navalny was sentenced to one year of suspended imprisonment on August 6, 2021. At the time, he and several of Alexei Navalny’s closest supporters were accused of inciting violations of sanitation rules imposed during the pandemic—they called for Muscovites to come out to protest after Alexei Navalny was arrested at Sheremetyevo Airport in January 2021.
The court filing says that FSIN requests to revoke Oleg’s suspended sentence “due to his failure to fulfill his assigned duties, evasion of damages, or committing a new crime.” What the FSIN’s claims are against Oleg Navalny are currently unknown.
And another challenge accepted
Today, the Kremlin made a retaliatory move after Western countries launched an information offensive over the weekend and Monday. The nature of the response was entirely predictable: Rattling weapons on the borders with Ukraine.
On Monday night, units of the 58th Army of the Southern Military District (according to Interfax, numbering 6,000 men) were raised on a training alert and began marching “to training ranges located at a considerable distance from their permanent deployment points,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement. The command of the 58th Army is in Vladikavkaz, some 750 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
In addition, aviation of the Southern Military District and naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet have received orders to move to operational airfields located in Rostov Region, Krasnodar Territory, and Crimea along the border with Ukraine. According to the military, aviation will conduct missile strikes as part of the combat readiness test. The Southern Military District press service specified that more than 60 aircraft (Su-27SM, Su-30SM2 fighters, and Su-34 multifunctional fighter bombers) would be involved in the exercise.
At the same time, a large-scale inspection of the combat readiness of the First Tank Army of the Western Military District located in the Moscow, Ivanovo, Smolensk, and Nizhny Novgorod regions has begun. According to the military,
“...more than 1,000 servicemen and about 100 units of weapons, military and special equipment were involved in the combat readiness test. Within the framework of the exercises, servicemen practice the actions of personnel on rising at the alert, receiving weapons and equipment, on the preparation of equipment for withdrawal from parks, and moving to concentration areas, where the main attention will be paid to camouflage, fortification and engineering equipment, preparation of equipment and weapons for the fulfillment of tasks according to the assignment.”
It is hardly a coincidence that on the same day, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that marines and artillerymen of the Pacific Fleet had arrived in Belarus to participate in the exercise “Union Resolute 2022” and released a video showing trains of vehicles and self-propelled Akatsiya howitzers. The day before, 12 Su-35S fighters, sent there from the Far East, arrived in Belarus. In addition, two S-400 missile divisions, which will be part of the unified regional air defense system of Russia and Belarus, began to move there.
According to Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, redeployment of troops will last until February 9; after that, Russia and Belarus will start the joint military exercise “Union Resolute,” which will take place February 10-20.
The Russian military did not name the total number of participants in the maneuvers. Still, it stated that “the number of military personnel and equipment involved in the exercises falling within the scope of the Vienna Document 2011 does not exceed the parameters specified in it, which are subject to notification.”
In my opinion, the Kremlin’s main goal at this stage is to demonstrate its ability to quickly redeploy large groups of troops and armament from the most remote regions of the country, which should indicate that the Russian army is much faster in preparing for a potential conflict.
Is disagreement real?
Last week, the Bank of Russia published its proposals to ban cryptocurrency transactions in Russia. This position provoked massive criticism; many experts said the Bank of Russia was condemning the country to technological backwardness.
Unexpectedly, the director of the Financial Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance, Ivan Chebeskov, joined the ban’s critics, saying that he proposes not to ban the circulation of cryptocurrencies in Russia but to regulate.
“When we discuss cryptocurrencies and digital currencies lately, we look at it very narrowly. We don’t look at the full breadth of the technologies that are being used in this industry... the world has very much virtualized. Technology is evolving very rapidly. And I don’t think we can afford to take some high-tech industries and ban them in our country and say that they should be developed in another country.
“The topic is important—indeed, there are risks. Because it is unclear what happens to citizens: They are essentially left alone with cryptocurrencies, and no one protects them. In this regard, of course, in my opinion, it is necessary to regulate, not prohibit. Regulation will provide the kind of transparency that will help protect citizens.”
In my opinion, it is too early to talk about any unified position of Russian authorities regarding the future of cryptocurrencies in Russia. Let’s note that the discussion is conducted among mid-level officials so far, which gives a lot of room for changing the position of any agency in any direction.
To the stars!
Russia continues to declare its intentions to build nuclear engines for spacecraft. A month ago, Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin said promising Russian spacecraft and orbital stations could receive atomic power units.
“Without nuclear power in space, it is impossible to study and develop deep space fully. This is our key to large-scale scientific missions to Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and deep space planets. In addition, it could potentially even be a source for power supply of future orbital systems and complexes.”
Vladimir Solovyov, the general designer of the Rocket and Space Corporation Energia, confirmed such plans and said his company has started developing a space nuclear tug with a capacity of up to six megawatts. Earlier, Alexander Bloshenko, executive director of Roskosmos, reported that the first sample of the Zeus orbital nuclear plant, with a capacity of up to 1 megawatt, will be ready by 2030.
Risk reduction
Gazprom Chairman Alexei Miller and Mongolia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sainbuyan Amarsaikhan approved the feasibility study to build a gas pipeline from Russia to China through Mongolian territory.
“The feasibility study showed that the project is technically feasible and economically profitable. The parties plan to jointly conduct engineering surveys and design the pipeline facilities in 2022 and 2023. The total length of the gas pipeline in Mongolia will be 960 kilometers, and it will transport 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year,” reported Mongolian agency MONTSAME.
The Soyuz Vostok pipeline will be part of Russia’s new Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which will allow Gazprom to reduce its dependence on European consumers. Unlike the Power of Siberia pipeline, which receives gas from fields in Yakutia and the north of the Irkutsk region, the new pipeline will take gas to China from Gazprom’s main areas on the Yamal peninsula. If the preparatory work is on schedule, the pipeline’s construction may start in 2024.
Protecting China’s interests!
After conducting short-term maneuvers with the Iranian Navy, Russia and China completed a joint naval exercise in the western Arabian Sea. The exercise involved practicing the release of a conditionally hijacked ship, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
The Russian side was represented by the missile cruiser Varyag, the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Tributes, and the large sea tanker Boris Butoma. The Chinese Navy was represented by the missile destroyer Urumqi and the complex supply ship Taihu.
The western part of the Arabian Sea is a crossroads between the shipping lanes of oil tankers coming from the Persian Gulf and ships passing through the Suez Canal. At one time, it was an area of high pirate activity, so the nature of the exercises is tied to their location.
In my opinion, objectively, China is much more interested in the security of shipping in this region. The fact that Russia is willing to provide disproportionate military resources for this purpose suggests Moscow is trying to establish military cooperation with Beijing, hoping, at some point, to use the latter’s resources to confront the West.
I’m not sure that the Chinese authorities will agree to such an offer, but I see no reason for them to refuse free Russian military aid.