Does Putin have two weeks? Hey, Kazakh! Take your seat! Presidential day-to-day business

January 13, 2022

Does Putin have two weeks?

President Vladimir Putin began his regular meeting with members of the government by discussing the situation related to the pandemic in Russia. The Russian leader realized that the impending wave associated with the Omicron variant could bring the state healthcare system to the brink of collapse and demanded that government and regional governors prepare as much as possible for the coming troubles. Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova, who reported on this subject, announced new data: The number of Russians infected with the Omicron variant was 689. But only a day ago, the number of infected was 305, according to data from Chief Sanitary Doctor Anna Popova. 

However, it seems that this data is already outdated. Alexander Gintsburg, head of the Gamaleya Research Institute, Russia’s main medical center for viral infections and the Sputnik V vaccine developer, said that as early as last Monday, up to 30% of Muscovites infected with COVID were infected with the Omicron variant. Taking this for granted, I conclude that in Moscow at least   1,500 people were infected with the Omicron variant that day (according to the Department of Health in Moscow, on Monday 4,635 infected were registered in the capital).

At the meeting, President Putin said: “...we have at least a couple of weeks to prepare... here we will also have certain advantages in terms of the timeliness of making the necessary decisions.” However, it seems that the poor quality of Russian statistics hides the accurate picture of what is happening, not only from society but also from the political leadership. And I can only quote Vladimir Putin: “We have no time for build-up.”

Only Ukraine can stop the escalation

The results of the Russia-NATO meeting in Brussels were even more expected than the meeting of the deputy foreign ministers in Geneva two days ago. Speaking at separate press conferences, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg agreed that the dialogue was held in a working atmosphere. Both sides had an opportunity to present their starting positions in detail. At the same time, each of the speakers noted no progress or convergence between the parties.

It was rather strange to see the disagreement between the two politicians over the reopening of mutual representations in Moscow and Brussels. The Secretary-General firmly stated that this issue was resolved positively, while the Russian diplomat was equally firm that though Russia was supportive of the resumption of missions it was not possible unless Russia determined the size of its representation independently. 

Russia accused NATO of destroying the system of treaties aimed at arms limitation and arms control and reverting to a containment policy. According to the head of the Russian delegation,

“NATO’s policy and military build-up are focused on deterring Russia; enormous resources are allocated to it, and it is not hidden that this is the alliance’s main goal.”

Declaring such policy to be unacceptable, Grushko said that during the talks, Russia

“managed to convey to the alliance members that the situation is becoming intolerable and that at some point, the risks of continuing the present NATO course may outweigh the benefits they want to receive today.”

He then stated that Russia knows how, and with what, it will respond to the alliance’s actions. He put it bluntly:

“If NATO adopts a policy of deterrence, it means there will be a policy of counter-deterrence on our part. If it is intimidation, then it will be counter-intimidation. If it is a search for some vulnerabilities in the defense system of the Russian Federation, then it will be a search for vulnerabilities on the part of NATO. This is not our choice, but there will be no other way unless we manage to reverse the current hazardous course of events.”

The Russian diplomat was even more straightforward when asked whether Russia was ready to de-escalate on the border with Ukraine. While his colleague Sergey Ryabkov said that Russia had the right to conduct any military maneuvers on its territory, Grushko stated unequivocally that Russia’s actions were a deliberate increase in tension. According to him (repeated twice), de-escalation can happen only after Ukraine fully complies with the Minsk agreements in their Russian interpretation. 

“Here, our position is unequivocal—de-escalation is possible. First, it is necessary to force Kyiv authorities to fully and unconditionally implement the Minsk agreements, which are part of international law.

To facilitate such de-escalation, and it is the only possible—if that is what we mean, then NATO countries must stop all military assistance to Ukraine, stop supplying weapons there, recall inspectors, instructors, officers, and soldiers, which is stipulated by the relevant provisions of the Minsk agreements.” (I drew your attention to the articulation of an expanded interpretation of the Minsk agreements by the Russian Foreign Ministry two weeks ago, “An unexpected interpretation”.)

Hey, Kazakh! Take your seat!

Head of the Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo) Yevgeny Primakov (grandson of former Russian Prime Minister) issued a harsh statement to one of the ministers of the new government of Kazakhstan. 

“I carefully read numerous quotes from the new Minister of Information [and Social Development of Kazakhstan] Askar Umarov,” he said. “Rossotrudnichestvo does not maintain contacts, does not work, and does not cooperate with Russophobe trash; that completely prevents any interaction we may have with the mentioned Minister and the Ministry of Information headed by him in the current configuration.’

The reason for such statements by the Russian official was quotes from social media posts made 10 years ago by a man who hid his name under a pseudonym. The Russian media claimed that this man was Umarov. In addition, RIA Novosti reported several years ago that Umarov was banned from entering Russia in 2017, when he was head of the state news agency, Kazinform. This happened because the agency published a map of the country showing the Russian cities of Omsk and Orenburg as part of Kazakhstan. (Also, parts of China and Uzbekistan were shown as part of Kazakhstan.) In addition, at the same time, Umarov made this harsh statement to the Russian authorities: “The former metropolis is still trying to behave like a master. They do not allow us to decolonize consciousness.”

Umarov became a member of Kazakhstan’s government in early 2021 when President Tokayev appointed him to the National Council of Public Trust and then as Vice-Minister of Information and Public Development. This decision fit in well with the general logic of President Tokayev’s national policy, which gently pushed the Russian population (which makes up 18% of the country’s population) out of political life. After the end of the power struggle, Tokayev must gain the trust of Kazakh elites and convince the ordinary people that his decision to rely on the CSTO troops does not mean he grants the Kremlin real power in Kazakhstan. In this regard, the appointment of Umarov, who is considered by the media as a supporter of the line of rapprochement with Turkey and estrangement from Russia, can help to solve this problem.

Of course, Yevgeny Primakov Jr. is not a person close to Putin or authorized to speak on Putin’s behalf. But he could hardly afford to make such a statement without getting the tacit approval of those close to Putin. After that, he showed how harsh and undiplomatic a Russian diplomat could be to a representative of a country considered one of Russia’s closest allies. 

Presidential day-to-day business

I often have to say that the political regime in contemporary Russia is highly reminiscent of an absolute monarchy (except for the absence of the institution of succession). A considerable number, sometimes very minor, of decisions are taken personally by the head of state. A clear indication of this was Vladimir Putin’s involvement in