Forbidden topics. A big boom in mind? The Kremlin decided not to tempt fate.

December 14, 2021

Forbidden topics

Last week, when I was talking about the policy of the Moscow government on the mild pushing of labor migrants out of the city, I mentioned that this topic is explosive in Russia. A few days passed, and the explosion happened. In the Kremlin. 

During a meeting with the Human Rights Council, Vladimir Putin exploded after the famous Russian film director Alexander Sokurov touched on compliance with Russian law in the North Caucasus republics in his speech. Specifically, Sokurov said: “Let’s let go of all those who no longer want to live in the same state with us, let’s wish them luck, let’s wish luck to all the Padishahs, I don’t know, all those who would like to start living their own lives.”

Without meaningfully answering any of the questions posed by Sokurov, the Russian President vented his emotions, explicitly stating that it is forbidden to discuss these topics in public. 

“You always speak sincerely. But, to put it bluntly, far from always accurate. And some things should have been considered and thought about first...it’s not permissible even for you to talk about it in the whole country...before you say such things in public you should think carefully...these are very serious things...some things are better said outright, and some things are better kept silent...”

Anything is possible for the police

Last week, the State Duma passed amendments to the Law on Police, which must now be approved by the Federation Council and signed by the President. There should be no doubt that both stages will be of a formal nature and will not lead to any substantive change in the law.

The main innovation gives the police the right to conduct searches without court authorization or even without initiating a criminal case, but only based on an affirmation or notification of an incident. The text of the law uses the word “inspection” instead of “search” but this does not change the essence. The police are given the absolute right to conduct inspections of premises, vehicles, and objects “to make decisions on an affirmation or notification of an incident.”  

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ instructions, an affirmation or notification of an incident may be made orally; knowing that Russian police officers often use “handy” witnesses, there can be no doubt that this practice will become widespread. 

The Kremlin decided not to tempt fate

Last week I told you about the results of a Levada-Center survey about the sharply negative attitude of Russians to the introduction of QR codes. The Kremlin decided not to put it to the test and backtracked. First, Vladimir Putin, during the meeting with the Human Rights Council, stated that there is no need to hurry with the adoption of the law:

“Before we adopt, let’s say, restrictions, connected with the use of transportation, we have to look very carefully at what it will lead to. And see if the transportation systems are ready in order not to limit people’s rights, on the one hand, but to ensure the safety and health of the same citizens that we care so much about.”

And just two days later, on Sunday (!), the chairman of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, announced in his Telegram channel that the bill was removed from consideration. According to him, this decision was made because of “dialogue between the State Duma and the Government, based on the views of the regions and appeals from citizens.”

A bill introducing the use of QR codes while visiting non-food stores, public events, and cultural institutions is still under consideration by the Parliament, to be voted on this Wednesday.

The vital thing is to prepare a plan

Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova has announced that 16 Russians who have recently returned from South Africa have been diagnosed with the Omicron strain.

Although the number of people sickened with the new strain is relatively small, the Russian government has already developed a plan to suppress Omicron, which President Putin demanded a week ago. Whether this plan will work or not, we will see within a couple of months.

A big boom in mind?

If Western sanctions against Belarus lead to an emergency in his country, the transit of Russian gas to Europe will be stopped, said President Alexander Lukashenko. 

“If the sanctions they impose or will impose in the future put us in an emergency, and we have no other way to respond to their sanctions, we’ll use this tough measure.”

“We still want to hope that nothing will prevent the Russian Federation from continuing to flawlessly fulfill its obligations under existing contracts,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said to this. He did not answer whether Russia would have any reaction to such statements.

Frankly speaking, I don’t understand how Belarus can stop gas transit on its own. If the compressors located in Russia continue to work, the gas pressure in the pipe in Belarus will increase until the pipe explodes. Does Lukashenko really want to make a big boom?!

Since mid-November, gas exports from Russia to Europe via pipelines (not counting Turkish Stream) have stabilized at 87%-88% of August exports and 77%-78% of December 2020 levels.

Even he didn’t make it through

December 12 is Constitution Day in Russia. The next day, President Putin met with Constitutional Court Chairman Valery Zorkin. It is hard to accuse the latter of disloyalty to the current regime: The Constitutional Court has never stopped any of the odious laws promoted by the Kremlin. But even this entirely loyal judge could not help saying in the public part of the meeting that “...as a matter of fact, the human rights situation is not that simple after all.”

The blackmail continues. So does dialogue

The Kremlin continues to send menacing scaremongering to Western countries. 

“There should be no further expansion of NATO [to the East]. And attempts to present the case as if Russia has no veto rights here are all attempts with untenable means. We will stand our ground: If our opponents cross us, they will see that their security is not strengthened—the consequences for them will be heavy,” warned Sergey Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs.

According to him, NATO does not explain the need to expand membership to the East.

“There is no argumentation. Moreover, they are trying to deny the legitimacy of why NATO should move somewhere to the East. For reasons of principle, they ostensibly deny the possibility of discussing this topic. But this is a mistake that can turn into the weakening of their own security,” Ryabkov said.

Reporting on the launch of structured dialogues on strategic stability and security in the field of information and communication technologies, Ryabkov said that in other issues,

“we see no progress. However, Moscow is ready to solve problems separately, without tying them into a single knot... We will not mix together issues that are not related to strategic stability, ICT security, and, for example, some of our bilateral difficulties on visas and activities of foreign institutions. These are also important issues, but one shouldn’t depend on the other.”

What do guarantees look like?

The Russian Foreign Ministry revealed the essence of the proposals, which Moscow proposes for discussion by the NATO countries to ensure peace and security in Europe. 

In Russia’s view, NATO should:

• • Retract its 2008 Bucharest summit promises to include Ukraine and Georgia in the bloc.

• • Legally enshrine the non-deployment of weapons systems threatening Russia.

• • Set back exercise areas to a certain distance from the line of contact between Russia and NATO members.

• • Agree on the closing distances for warships and aircraft, above all in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. 

In addition, Russia proposes to restore regular contacts between the defense ministries of Russia, the U.S., and other NATO countries and urges the Americans to join the Russian moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in Europe.