Holiday's brief: The mounting pressure; Central bank confirms; Another hostage

January 4, 2022

The mounting pressure

Putin’s Deputy Chief of Staff, Dmitry Kozak, will hold face-to-face talks this week in Moscow with his German and French counterparts, Jens Plötner and Emmanuel Bonn. Kozak oversees relations with Ukraine and Moldova in the administration and is the Russian President’s old pal and confidant.

The Kremlin has requested a face-to-face meeting to broaden the focus of its diplomatic pressure. We should expect that during the talks, Kozak will accuse the Ukrainian authorities of violating the Minsk agreements, of carrying out combat operations on the line of demarcation in Donbas, and of oppressing the Russian-speaking population. On this basis, the Kremlin will demand to “bring Kyiv to order” and fulfill its obligations under the Minsk agreements.

Money does matter

A Taliban spokesman reported that unnamed Russian investors visited Afghanistan and met with Deputy Prime Minister Mawlawi Abdul Salam Hanafi. At the meeting, they discussed opportunities for investment in Afghan industry. Such a visit was possible only with the Kremlin’s permission—the Taliban is recognized in Russia as a terrorist organization, and cooperation [in the broad sense] with this organization is criminally punishable.

On the one hand, Afghanistan has enormous natural resources, including iron ore, lithium, and rare earth materials. Geological surveys were conducted during the Soviet era, and all data are stored in Russian archives. On the other hand, the Kremlin is concerned about possible Taliban penetration into Central Asia and Russia and would like to improve relations with the current Afghan authorities. Ten days ago, Vladimir Putin refused to answer whether Russia recognized the Taliban government.

Central bank confirms labor shortage

The Russian economy is close to overheating, as evidenced by the situation in the labor market; further economic growth depends on productivity growth, said Kirill Tremasov, director of the monetary policy department of the Bank of Russia.

“The analysis of this market shows that yes, the economy, the Russian economy is close to a state of overheating. Most likely, we are already above our potentials. Above that trajectory of our potential capabilities. And the labor market is exactly the key limitation for long-term growth.”

“We’re facing an ever-increasing labor shortage. And it is the state of the labor market that economists consider one of the best indicators of where the economy is, relative to its potential.”

“Without productivity gains, which are difficult to achieve without competition, the economy is unlikely to grow sustainably at a high rate in the long run.”

Understanding personal risks

Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsimbalyuk urgently left Russia after receiving a summons for questioning by the Prosecutor General’s Office in a case of inciting hatred and hostility against Russians. Tsimbalyuk worked in Russia as a correspondent for the UNIAN news agency for 13 years and was invited to all official events, including the latest press conference of the Russian President.

I well understand the journalist’s concerns: Russian law enforcement agencies very often serve charges and detain those who were invited for questioning as witnesses. After the occupation of Crimea and the beginning of the military operation in Donbas, Russian authorities repeatedly detained Ukrainian citizens on trumped-up charges. Many of those arrested ended up in prison under court sentences.

Another hostage

The former chief director of the Odessa Opera and Ballet Theater, Yevgeny Lavrenchuk, was detained making a flight connection in Naples on December 17, 2021, at the request of the Russian Federation. Russian authorities accuse the director of financial violations committed on the territory of the Russian Federation eight years ago. Lavrenchuk studied at the Russian Academy of Theatre Arts, is the founder of the Polish Theater in Moscow, and is the founder and head of the School of Acting and Directing. After Russia annexed Crimea Lavrenchul left for Ukraine. He has staged over 30 productions in Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Germany, and Israel.

Later in the evening, the state news agency TASS released the information that Lavrenchuk had been arrested in absentia by the district court in Moscow in June 2020 at the request of the investigator. No accusation details were disclosed.