How to lose sphere of influence
November 27, 2021
One of the issues discussed at the last meeting of the Russian Security Council was relations with the CIS countries.
Vladimir Putin lives in the past. You can accept his positioning of Russia as the heir to the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire—after all, you agree that today’s France is the heir to the empire of Louis XIV. At the same time, everyone is well aware that this legacy lies in geographic location, language, and culture. None of the French politicians would come up with the idea of restoring the French political traditions of Le Roi Soleil or France’s boundaries of the heyday of Napoleon’s empire.
A longing for the past expresses Putin’s historical legacy. He likes the idea of an authoritarian and unlimited rule during the time of the Russian Empire and the concept of the infallibility of the supreme power. He likes the idea of a Yalta peace, where the spheres of influence of the major powers are clearly defined and where the neighbors of the Soviet Union unquestioningly follow Kremlin’s orders. There is no secret that he largely succeeded in building a structure within Russia based on his understanding of history. However, outside the country, the success of his policies is extremely limited, if not directly opposite to his wishes.
Perhaps due to historical relations with the leaders of neighboring post-Soviet countries, President Yeltsin tried to support the CIS, if not as a full-scale interstate entity, then as a club of interests. Under him, the CIS member states signed many agreements that made life easier for their citizens and businesses. Ukraine, which has not yet ratified the Agreement on the Establishment of the CIS, took part in summits and was a party to most multilateral agreements.
Over the 22 years of Vladimir Putin’s rule, Russia’s relations with all of its post-Soviet neighbors have either cooled or worsened. Russia grabbed parts of their territories from Georgia and Ukraine as a result of military aggression. In the east of Ukraine, unrecognized (even by Russia) republics emerged, the existence of which is supported by Russian bayonets and Russian money. A large group of Russian troops continues to reside in the territory of Moldova, which opposes any attempts to reintegrate Transnistria. After these three countries signed agreements on a comprehensive free trade area with the European Union (DCFTA), Russia declared a trade war on them, banning the import of a significant part of their traditional products, limiting the possibilities for the transit of goods from these countries through the territory of Russia.
