Hybrid war has no borders. We can help as much as we can. The price of ambitions. The Republic is Above the Law
February 3, 2022
Hybrid war has no borders
Germany’s support of the Russian gas pipeline “Nord Stream 2” and its demonstrative refusal to give any military assistance to Ukraine (except for 5,000 helmets sent to the country) were not obstacles to opening a new front in the hybrid war. We are talking about the conflict over the broadcasting of the Russian channel RT in German in Germany.
German law prohibits issuing television and internet broadcasting licenses to companies whose owners are state structures. RT is a state-run RIA Novosti news agency subsidiary and cannot get a permit. To get around the ban, RT signed an agreement with the Serbian company Olx Praca DE, licensed in its own country, and began broadcasting in Germany, citing the 1989 European Convention on Transborder Television. To create content, RT created a German subsidiary, RT DE Productions, which does not legally broadcast but sells all content to the parent company. RT, in turn, passes the content on to a Serbian company, which broadcasts on television networks and through satellite systems.
Having put all the elements of the puzzle together, the German regulator formed its judgment and named RT DE Productions as the organizer of broadcasting, stating that this company is responsible for all RT programs in German from the point of view of media law. At the same time, the regulator affirmed that the 1989 European Convention does not give the right to broadcast in Germany, which was confirmed by a court decision in 2021. On this basis, the Serbian company was also banned from broadcasting in Germany.
There should have been no doubt that it will not take long before Russia responds. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Russian authorities are ready to retaliate. “This step deprives us of any other choice but to proceed with retaliatory measures against German media accredited in Russia, as well as internet intermediaries who arbitrarily and groundlessly removed the TV channel’s accounts from their platforms.”
Leaks from the Kremlin suggest that Russia may restrict or ban the Deutsche Welle radio station, ban the advertising of German goods on Russian television, and levy a fine on YouTube.
We can help as much as we can
February 1, sanctions by the United States and the European Union against Belarus came into force. They prohibit imports of potash fertilizers from that country. In this regard, banks and companies providing various services to the producer and exporters of Belarusian fertilizers may fall under the sanctions. Lithuanian Railways has stopped transportation of this category of cargo from Belarus. The port of Klaipėda stopped loading fertilizers into ships, while banks of the importing countries have stopped making payments in dollars and euros.
“Belaruskali” is the largest producer of potash fertilizers globally, accounting for about 22% of the world market. Fertilizer exports were $2.5 billion in 2020, about 22% of all ex-CIS exports; 50% of this volume was exported to China, Brazil, and India, and another 20% to the European Union and Norway. The imposed sanctions could be a severe blow to the country’s economy, but it appears that various escape schemes are ready to be implemented.
Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President, confirmed that on Vladimir Putin’s orders, officials are working on the possibility of exporting Belarusian fertilizers through Russian ports. It won’t be elementary to achieve: In recent years, 10 million-11 million tons of fertilizers were exported through the port of Klaipėda, and there is no such spare capacity in the Russian ports today. But I have no doubts that it will be done.
India has already come to the aid of Belarus in solving the problem of sanctions; it buys about 20% of imported fertilizers from this country. Payment for deliveries will be made in Indian rupees, which allows avoids the sanctions pressure. The rupee is not a convertible currency, and the funds received can be used only to pay for imports from India. Because the Belarusian economy has very little demand for Indian goods, I am ready to assume that rupees will be sold to Russian companies at Vnesheconombank auctions, along with the funds credited to Russian accounts exporters.
In a word, he will not offend an ally!
Vaccination certificates will be!
Russia’s Ministry of Digital Technology has sent an official application to the European Union to join the mechanism of verification of certificates of vaccination against the coronavirus. The Ministry reported that “the application was prepared in accordance with EU requirements.” This means that Russia has agreed to use European technologies for data storage, certificate signing, and verification mechanisms.
For a long time, the Russian authorities insisted that the EU abandoned the principle used to verify the validity of the certificates, regardless of a connection with the data storage databases. The verification of Russian certificates requires a connection with the federal database, which the European authorities found unacceptable. In turn, the Russian authorities insisted that European technology would violate Russian laws prohibiting the storage of the personal data of Russians outside the country. The Russian special services argued that European agencies would gain access to personal data by reading a certificate created according to European rules. The fact that personal data is contained in the passports of Russians, which are presented at border controls, for some reason did not bother the Russian security agencies.
It seems that now these objections are put aside, and in the event the European Union agrees, Russia will be able to connect to the EU infrastructure. After that, Russian information systems will be able to form a certificate according to European standards and the Russian one at the request of a citizen.
The price of ambitions
After a two-week break, the Russian Ministry of Finance entered the market and placed seven-year bonds with a nominal value of 74.7 billion rubles, according to materials from the Ministry.
Until mid-November, before the aggravation around Ukraine, such news did not arouse interest: Every week, the Ministry of Finance placed bonds worth 65 billion-70 billion rubles. The political crisis and the U.S. sanctions threats resulted in massive sales of Russian bonds by non-residents, falling bond prices, and rising yields.
The Ministry of Finance had planned to place bonds worth 700 billion rubles in the first quarter, but it managed to attract 4% of that amount in January. When refusing to issue the bonds, the Ministry of Finance spoke of the high volatility of the market and too-high yields. After the situation had calmed down somewhat, the Treasury placed its most significant issue since the middle of last August. At the same time, the Treasury felt that its continued presence in the market was more important than the excess debt service costs resulting from the new issue’s higher yields. Compared to the beginning of October of the previous year, the yield on the seven-year bonds rose by 232 bps, which increased the total amount of interest payments (until the maturity of this issue) by 12 bln rubles. Because the bonds were sold to investors at a discount, the budget received 66.3 billion rubles from their placement. Thus, the budget will pay 18% of the proceeds for the Kremlin’s geopolitical ambitions.
Miners should pay more
Most electricity in the Irkutsk region is generated by hydroelectric power plants, making regional electricity tariffs the lowest in Russia. RUSAL has long used this, which has set up a giant aluminum plant in Bratsk. Low electricity rates make aluminum production highly profitable, even though the raw materials from the ports and the finished products have to be transported about 4,500 kilometers by railroad to the docks.
Last year, cryptocurrency miners could take advantage of low electricity rates. The director of the regional grid company said that the population’s electricity consumption has quadrupled compared to 2020.
Igor Kobzev, Governor of the Irkutsk region, appealed to the government with a proposal to legally recognize cryptocurrency mining as a type of business activity. The Governor said that residents are engaged in entrepreneurial activities but pay for electricity at rates for the population, four times lower than the rates for industrial consumers. Moreover, he believes that the mining companies need to set higher rates for the electricity consumed. I should add that after that, mining will stop in the Irkutsk region, as it will become unprofitable.
International project
On Wednesday, a plane of the Ekaterinburg-based cargo airline Aviacon Cytotrans delivered to Canada’s Vancouver airport from Kabul over 300 stray animals that were being kept at the Kabul Small Animal Rescue (KSAR) veterinary clinic.
In August 2021, KSAR founder Charlotte Maxwell-Jones unsuccessfully tried to smuggle out the pets, many of whom had been abandoned by their owners who were fleeing Afghanistan in a hurry after the Taliban seized power. As a U.S. citizen, she first wanted to bring the cats and dogs to America but could not obtain permission from the appropriate U.S. authorities to bring so many of her pets. The Canadian animal charity Thank Dog I Am Out Rescue Society and its partners assisted the clinic and chartered the Aviacon Cytotrans plane.
The Republic is Above the Law
Chechen authorities demonstrate that Russian laws do not work in this republic. After the Russian media started actively discussing the kidnapping of federal judge Saidi Yangulbayev’s wife in Nizhny Novgorod (see “Above-the-law-man”) and asked Vladimir Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov every day about his reaction to it, the Chechen leaders began openly threatening the judge’s family and those who support him.
On Tuesday, State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov said: “You should know that day and night, without sparing your lives, property, or posterity, we will hound you until we cut off your heads and kill you. We really have enmity and vendetta with you.” Delimkhanov appealed in Chechen and threatened to cut off the heads of anyone who translates his words into Russian.
On Wednesday, similar threats were made by two Chechen deputy prime ministers, the head of the Chechen capital, the Grozny police department, the head of the federal Emergency Situations Ministry’s department in Chechnya, and the commander of a regiment of Interior Ministry troops.
“We will kill you, rip your head off, rip off your tongue, and hang you somewhere.
“By Allah’s permission, anywhere in this world, wherever they are, we will take the demand for their words. By Allah’s permission, day and night we have no job more important than to find you and cut off your heads.”
Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin would not interfere in the situation, saying that “it is up to the parliamentary ethics commission to assess the actions of the State Duma deputy.”