Russian oil is needed
Dividing Europe
The new clause started to work
Crisis. But not yet
It didn’t work out
The variety is shrinking
We don’t give up our guys
“I wish they would equate a bayonet with a pen”
Russian oil is needed. Especially if it is cheap
The Russian Finance Ministry reported that the average export price of Russian Urals crude in May was $78.8, which made the discount to Brent $32 against $34 in April and $28 in March.
The Pakistani authorities don’t mind taking advantage of the pressure exerted by the EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and are ready to buy Russian oil. At deep discounts and with no risk of secondary sanctions, that country’s Finance and Revenue Minister Miftah Ismail said: “If Russia offers us oil at a lower cost and Pakistan is not under secondary sanctions for purchasing Russian oil, of course, we will consider it [the offer].” At the same time, the minister noted that Pakistani banks are unlikely to “open letters of credit or negotiate the purchase of Russian oil.” So far, no such offers have been received from Russia.
Pakistan’s Minister of State for Petroleum Affairs, Musadik Malik, said on May 27 that Pakistan had officially approached the Russian Federation with a proposal to buy oil and gas.
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said his country would not take advantage of an exception to the new EU sanctions package, which applies to pipeline supplies of Russian oil and seeks to abandon its imports by the end of 2022.
Two German refineries—in the cities of Leuna (controlled by Total) and Schwedt (controlled by Rosneft)—account for about a third of the country’s oil refining; both have no connection to the pipelines in the West and supply the eastern part of Germany with oil products, depend on Russian oil supplies.
Dividing Europe
German energy company RWE, the largest electricity producer in Germany, said it had paid its bill for Russian gas supplies under the new system in May in rubles through its account at Gazprombank. Thus, all German buyers of Russian gas have complied with Putin’s demand.
Uniper, which reported paying for gas imports in rubles (as I mentioned the day before), said that this step had been agreed upon with the German government.
Austrian oil and gas company OMV also reported that it paid for gas supplies from Russia under the new scheme in May.
The new clause started to work
After the start of the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia introduced administrative and criminal liability for “public dissemination of knowingly false information about the use of the Russian Armed Forces.” According to censorship requirements, any information that does not correspond to the Russian Ministry of Defense published guidelines is considered inaccurate. The Criminal Code provides a wide range of penalties for such a charge: From a fine of 700,000 rubles to 15 years in prison.
On Tuesday, May 31, Russia handed down its first criminal verdict against Peter Mylnikov, a resident of Trans-Baikal Territory, who was fined 1 million rubles. Mylnikov was the administrator of a public group in one of the social networks and, according to the accusation, “twice posted knowingly false information in the group under the guise of reliable information... In addition, he posted comments in the same group on the said topic... By his actions, he wanted to form a negative attitude toward the Russian army involved in the special operation and Russian state bodies in general.”
According to Russian human rights activists, there are currently at least 53 criminal cases with similar charges in Russia; 13 defendants have been arrested and are in pre-trial detention.
Crisis. But not yet
The volume of freight loaded by Russian Railways in May 2022 decreased by 5.6% compared to the same period in 2021. This drop is comparable to that recorded in March-May 2020 during the first COVID pandemic lockdown but significantly less than the decline during the 2008-2009 crisis, which reached 26%-33% in December-February.
It didn’t work out
Since January 1, 2022, designers of buildings and structures under contracts financed from the budget should have switched to information modeling technologies (IMT) with the mandatory 3D models. However, the lack of quality Russian software and the introduction of Western sanctions have slowed down the process; in this regard, the Russian government has decided to postpone until March 1, 2023, the date of transition to new design technologies, said Deputy Minister of Construction Konstantin Mikhailik.
The variety is shrinking
According to a study by NielsenIQ, after the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine, the range of household and personal care products in Russian stores has shrunk dramatically.
The company estimates that for six weeks—from March 21 to May 1, 2022—the number of product items (SKUs) in these non-food categories in the largest retail chains decreased by 23% compared to the same period last year. The most noticeable narrowing of the assortment is observed in detergents: The number of product items in March-April 2022 decreased by 32.7% against the same period of the past year. Personal care products (31.8%), dishwashing supplies (31.2%), laundry conditioners (30.4%), facials (25.9%), hair conditioners and shampoos (26.9% and 25.5%), and cleaning supplies (24.2%) were also among the leaders in assortment decline among non-food products.
We don’t give up our guys
The Russian Constitution adopted in 1993 established the numerical composition of the Constitutional Court, 19 people. For unknown reasons, Vladimir Putin thought this was too many. After returning to the Kremlin in 2012, he neglected his duties as President—he did not submit candidates for the Constitutional Court’s positions to the Federation Council. However, four people have since dropped out due to their age. In 2020, when a quorum in the Court was in danger of disappearing, Putin decided to reduce its size to 11 people and lower the quorum requirement to eight people. At present, the Constitutional Court has 10 judges.
In this situation, Vladimir Putin’s decision to nominate a new candidate to serve as a judge of the Constitutional Court came as a complete surprise. However, the biography of the candidate, Andrei Bushev, made this decision understandable.
Bushev is an associate professor in the Civil Law Department of the University of St. Petersburg, where he studied at the same time as Dmitry Medvedev, of whom Bushev is a protégé. Already in 2009, a year after Dmitry Medvedev was inaugurated as President, Bushev represented Russia as an ad hoc judge at the ECHR, hearing a complaint from former minority shareholders of Yukos. In September 2011, when the Strasbourg Court ruled on the case, Bushev failed to support it on several issues. ECHR members were not impressed by the professional qualities of Medvedev’s classmate and twice, in 2012 and 2021, refused to accept him when Russia nominated him as a permanent judge at the ECHR. Both times he was on the shortlist of candidates, and both times the choice was not in his favor.
For Vladimir Putin, a man whose candidacy was twice rejected by the European Court does not need any other recommendations. Besides, his support of Bushev should signal to the elites that Dmitry Medvedev remains an essential player in the Russian President’s team.
No surrendering! Putin is not giving up on Medvedev. Medvedev is not giving up on Bushev. Bushev won’t give up... I wonder who Bushev won’t give up?
“I wish they would equate a bayonet with a pen”
Ya khochu, chtob k shtyku priravnyali pero.
(Vladimir Mayakovsky)
The management of the Bank of Russia “strongly advised” employees to refrain from traveling to “unfriendly” countries until the time of a “special order.”
“Taking into account the current geopolitical situation in the world, the possible realization of a threat to the security of Russian citizens when they are outside the country, as well as the presence of potential risks associated with their return, we strongly recommend Bank of Russia employees to refrain from foreign trips to countries included in the list of foreign states and territories that commit unfriendly acts against Russia, Russian legal entities, and individuals until a special order.”
Such an appeal was sent to the heads of structural divisions of the Bank of Russia. Although it is advisory, its recipients must sign it as an acknowledgment of familiarization. The appeal stresses that the recommendation especially applies to employees “admitted to state secrets.”
After the annexation of Crimea, Russia began to impose restrictions on travel abroad for law enforcement officers—they were required to surrender their foreign passports to the personnel services, and they were required to obtain the consent of their supervisor to travel abroad. The recommendation of the Bank of Russia symbolizes the transformation of this organization into a power structure whose primary purpose is to support the existing political regime in Russia.