The Chairman of the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian Parliament, Valentina Matviyenko, a person close to Vladimir Putin, often makes statements designed to probe public opinion when the Russian President wants to launch a new initiative. Today, she publicly advocated the immediate start of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Let’s sit down right today, the parliament of Russia, and the parliament of Ukraine; let’s sit down at the negotiating table. Let’s try to understand each other to find agreements... we are for negotiations, dialogue, and a peaceful political solution to this crisis. Let’s negotiate and sit down at the negotiating table.
Probably, we could have ignored this speech. More so because it contained the traditional appeals of the Russian authorities:
[it is necessary] to objectively understand the genesis of the Ukrainian crisis and why Russia was forced to stand up for the civilians of Donbas, who have been subjected to a blockade and regular shelling for eight years.
But on the other hand, in the previous 224 days of the war, Matviyenko spoke only twice about the possibility of peace talks with Ukraine, and each time she laid out an ultimatum to accept the demands made by Moscow.
[The negotiations] must take place on realistic terms. They are known... These are conditions that are stated for the targets of an extraordinary military operation. Of course, Russia will not negotiate on any other conditions because Ukraine crossed the red line (June 1, 2022).
Even today, Russia is ready to negotiate, but not declaratively, not by engaging in chattering or inventing schemes or topics that could prolong the negotiations. Our conditions must be clearly and distinctly outlined and accepted. This will be the basis for talks that can be used to fine-tune details (June 26, 2022).
I do not think that Vladimir Putin has directly instructed the speaker to take this initiative. Still, we must remember that Matviyenko is a member of the Russian Security Council, during sessions of which the Russian dictator sets out his vision of the situation. If Matviyenko simply repeated what she heard, it means that the Russian leader understands he has little chance of ending the war by defeating the Ukrainian army.
It is not a fake
Rosstat released an estimate of Russia’s second-quarter GDP applying the method of use, which confirmed a 4.1% year-over-year drop in the economy. What caught my attention in this data was the estimate of household consumption, which, according to Rosstat, fell 7.5% from the first quarter of this year. If we believe the Rosstat data, at the end of 2021, the households’ consumption finally reached the previous maximum recorded at the end of 2014, and in the first quarter of this year, exceeded it by 1.8%.
Compared with May 2012, when Vladimir Putin returned to the presidency, the consumption of the Russian population increased by 2.7%. He may say proudly, ‘During my presidential tenure, household income grew.’ And that will not be a fake.
Although households consumption decreased after the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army, this did not lead to a decrease in alcohol consumption. On the contrary, according to the regulator, in January-September 2022, retail sales of alcoholic beverages for April-September (statistics are collected quarterly, so there are no data for March) increased by 7.1% compared to the corresponding period last year, including sales of vodka by 6.2%.
During April-September, Russian companies produced 58.2 million decaliters (dal) of vodka, an 8.8% increase over last year.
It sounds ridiculous, but who cares?
The Russian Investigative Committee has filed final charges against opposition politician Ilya Yashin for spreading fake information about the Russian army.
An excerpt from the indictment was published on Yashin’s Facebook page. It says that the politician “feels dislike for the political system in the Russian Federation, denies the apparent need to ensure the security of the Russian Federation from external threats and stop violations of the fundamental rights of citizens of the DNR and LNR, understands that he is a public person, and therefore his activities cause increased interest in an indefinite range of people, and the personal statements made are perceived by them as credible.”
The case against Yashin will be submitted to the court by October. Yashin's alleged crime carries a penalty of up to 15 years in prison.
Politician Vladimir Kara-Murza, who had been charged with issuing “fakes” about the Russian army, was charged with an additional charge of high treason. This was reported by the state news agency TASS, citing sources in law enforcement agencies. The politician’s lawyer confirmed this.
The TASS source claimed that FSB investigators believe that Kara-Murza “has been cooperating with a NATO country for a long time,” but the source could not reveal any other details.
Kara-Murza's alleged crime carries a penalty of 12 to 20 years in prison.
Finance Ministry worked well
The RF Ministry of Finance published data on oil-and-gas revenues of the federal budget in September, which, on the one hand, continue to change in close dependence on changes in the export price of Russian oil, calculated in rubles, and, on the other hand, turned out to be 20% higher than I expected. The increase in revenues was because, starting in September, the Ministry of Finance increased the tax pressure on the oil and gas industry. The mineral extraction tax rate on gas has been increased until the end of the year, which more than doubled the revenues of this tax. In addition, the amount of compensation paid by the federal budget to oil refineries for maintaining stable prices for oil products inside the country (refundable excise tax) was reduced. However, the drop in oil prices in September makes a drop in oil and gas budget revenues in October inevitable.
Public outrage at the Russian army’s failure to provide mobilized Russians with essential equipment and clothing was so great that it forced the members of the State Duma to worry about this issue. The Duma Defense Committee has invited two deputy defense ministers to its meeting to discuss the problem, said committee member Andrei Gurulev.
The problems are as follows: Every year, the Defense Ministry budget allocates money in full, including a separate item for logistic support. <...> Today, we cannot understand why our mobilized soldiers can’t be dressed appropriately and clothed. Uniforms, clothing, weapons—that’s it. ..Moreover, the Chairmen of the Defense and Security Committees asked the Prosecutor General to find out how the funds allotted for the rear were spent,.
The day before yesterday, Committee Chairmen Andrey Kartapolov and Vasily Piskarev asked the Prosecutor General to find out where the total amount of the financing for the home front was spent. The money was allocated, the property for mobilization is gone, and attention—The question is: Where?
Only we should not count on the fact that the deputy’s activity will have any consequences. First, the session will take place in 10 days, during which the Defense Ministry can “cover its tracks” and report that all the problems have been solved. Second, the meeting will be held behind closed doors, which initially suggests that it will be held only so that the deputies can report that they have held a meeting.
Better late than never
The European Union, as part of the eighth sanctions package announced on Thursday, October 6, expanded the ban on imports of steel products from Russia to include semi-finished products. Russian steelmakers are vital suppliers of these products to the European market.
The ban covers Russian steel slabs (used for the production of flat steel products) and square billets (used for the production of fittings). The embargo will come into force on April 1, 2024, for square billet and October 1, 2024, for slabs. After two years, it will also be impossible to directly or indirectly provide brokerage, insurance, and financial services as part of exporting these goods from Russia.
Just a fact
The Oryol Region has suspended the conscription of residents of the region as part of the partial mobilization announced in the Russian Federation, Regional Governor Andrei Klychkov said.
So far, we have suspended the mobilization by the decision of the Ministry of Defense. (...) So far, there are no commands from the Defense Ministry. There is no conscription now, as of today. We will wait for the decisions of the Defense Ministry”.
Village authorities on St. Lawrence Island notified the Coast Guard on Tuesday that two foreign nationals had landed near the community of Gambell in a small boat.
The U.S. Coast Guard confirmed the men were taken to the public safety building in Gambell. Town Clerk Curtis Silook said the men were flown off the island on Tuesday. According to Silook, the men told villagers they had sailed their boat from the city of Egvekinot in Northeastern Russia, approximately 300 miles by sea. Other villagers said the men told them they were fleeing the Russian military.
The police and traffic police officers are handing out summonses en masse to employees of enterprises on the territory of the former Singer plant in Podolsk (25 miles south of Moscow). One of the workers said that representatives of the military registration and enlistment office (voencomat) came to the complex's territory and asked to call all the men.
They did not have any specific data or lists. All the men under 50 were handed a summons with a demand to come to the voencomat to verify their identity. Even a citizen of Uzbekistan was handed in, but they still told him to come to the enlistment office tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. They hand in everyone, check warehouses and cars, they don't let you out without a summons, they say they've received an order to conduct a raid.
What “the pivot to the East” looks like
In September 2022, LADA dealers sold 20,641 new LADA cars. This is 14.1% more than in August and 20.1% more than in September of last year, the press service of AvtoVAZ happily announced.
But, as is often the case, this did not tell the whole truth. The decline in car sales of AvtoVAZ began in the middle of 2021: While in the first half of the year, about 33,5000 cars were sold each month, in the second half, 25,300 were sold.
My attention, however, was attracted by another fact: In September, the cumulative share of Chinese cars was almost a quarter (24.8%), while a year ago, their share was less than 10% (9.3%). This, however, means that Chinese companies have dramatically increased their sales. In the past four months, June-September, when the logistical problems had already been solved, the total sales of Chinese cars increased by only 4% compared to the previous year. Their share increased because total sales of new vehicles fell by two-thirds during this time.
This is what “the pivot to the East” looks like: China’s participation in the Russian economy is not growing, but due to companies from other countries leaving the market, China’s share and influence are increasing.
I hope Matviyenko’s latest statements mean something.