Put chess aside. Learn judo

Weekend essay, January 16, 2022

Tensions between Russia and the West continue to rise. After meetings in Geneva and Brussels failed to bring Putin any result that could be declared a victory, the Kremlin decided to back up verbal interventions with practical steps. On Friday, many websites of Ukrainian ministries and departments were cyberattacked. Still, much more serious was the attack on the Dia app, which Ukrainian citizens use in their daily lives—the app stores electronic versions of ID cards, driver’s licenses, vaccination certificates, and many other documents that are the legal equivalent of physical documents. In addition, new military exercises have begun in the Rostov region near the border with Ukraine. They involve combat aviation that carries out bombing and missile launches against ground targets.

Unlike many experts, I do not believe that Putin is preparing for new aggression against Ukraine, and here are my arguments:

Putin is a judo master, not a chess player. A judo strategy is to keep the opponent in suspense, put him off balance, and use the chance to make a throw that will earn some winning points. In short, Putin is an opportunistic politician, and it would be strange to expect him to announce his goals long before he is ready to launch an attack.

Aggression against Ukraine, in theory, could have three alternative goals: