Putin as a peacemaker. Preparing for the summit. Russians against QR codes.

November 30, 2021

As a peacemaker

Russian President Vladimir Putin held trilateral talks with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Sochi on Friday, November 26. 

Following three hours of negotiations, the three leaders signed a joint statement promising to “work towards creating a bilateral commission” to delimit and demarcate the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The document also states that the parties “agreed to unblock transport corridors.” The latter decision, if implemented, will allow Armenia to supply the remaining part of Nagorno-Karabakh under its control freely and Azerbaijan to establish land transport links with Turkey.   

The Kremlin has demonstrated that it can act as an impartial mediator in this conflict; however, no apparent results of resolving the situation have been seen yet.

Unexpected

The court in Moscow rebuffs billionaire Gennady Timchenko’s attempt to vouch for Magomed Magomedov and get him out of remand prison. Despite Timchenko’s more than close relationship with President Putin, the judge 1) made him wait four hours in the corridor before letting him in, 2)  turned Timchenko away, faulting him for not knowing the consequences of vouching for Magomedov and for having no plan to ensure his good behavior. Though according to the law, the judge must explain to the surety his duties and responsibilities.

A distinct hint

Novosibirsk City Councilman Sergei Boyko, the former head of Alexey Navalny’s local campaign office, decided not to return to Russia. 

Boyko said that he went abroad on a business trip and was supposed to return to Novosibirsk last week. But the criminal case against Liliya Chanysheva, the former head of Navalny’s Ufa headquarters, made him rethink returning to Russia.  

“In the materials of Liliya Chanysheva’s case, it [would be] enough to change Ufa to Novosibirsk and everything else, word for word... Moreover, according to my information, such materials already exist,” Boyko wrote on Facebook.

I would not be surprised if other activists of Alexei Navalny’s organization make similar decisions shortly, because the pressure on dissidents in Russia increases every day. For the Kremlin, the departure of the opposition from Russia is preferable to their arrest. In this regard, overly harsh behavior in the arrest of a pregnant woman during the investigation—Liliya Chanysheva—undoubtedly had the goal of making a psychological impact on many of her associates.

Preparing for the summit

Speaking at a meeting of the Federation Council’s ad hoc commission on protecting state sovereignty and preventing interference in the affairs of the Russian Federation, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow would not allow Washington to interfere in Russia’s internal affairs. 

According to Ryabkov, the Russian side notes that “over the years, American propaganda and disinformation acquire more sophisticated forms, mimicking independent media, journalistic investigations, and grassroots public initiatives.”  

On the one hand, this statement is nothing new—Vladimir Putin constantly talks about the intervention of the West and the United States in Russian affairs. However, the Russian president could never provide any evidence of this. On the other hand, in the words of Sergei Ryabkov, one can hear an explanation for the “tightening of the political screws” that has been observed in Russia for the past year and a half: The actions of the Russian authorities are a response to the actions of the West.

It is interesting to note that accusations against the United States are increasing. However, Washington has stopped discussing the human rights situation in Russia in high-level negotiations for several years now. In addition, one should not forget that a virtual meeting between Presidents Putin and Biden may take place before the end of the year. Moscow appears to have begun preparing for the meeting.

Russians against QR codes 

The protest movement against the introduction of QR codes is expanding across the country. Not a single political force dared to lead this movement, so all actions are chaotic and unsystematic. This week, the Levada-Center is conducting a poll on the attitude of Russians toward the use of QR codes in the fight against the spread of COVID. The scientific director of the center, Lev Gudkov, believes that the confident majority (51%-55%) will be against this tool.  

Remembering the Soviet past

The Russian Grain Union doubts the correctness of the data on grain harvest coming from the regions and does not exclude tall tales, said its head, Arkady Zlochevsky.

“The issue of the correctness of data from regional bodies...is on the agenda today quite acutely. I don’t presume to say for what reasons this practice has developed. Still, regional bodies are putting pressure on agricultural producers today so that they “give a volume,” both in terms of area and by harvests”, he said. According to him, the agrarians are forced to obey; otherwise, they will be denied subsidies and state support.

Even taking into account the statistical exaggerations, the harvest is more than enough to satisfy absolutely all the needs of the domestic market and have relatively serious export potential, the expert assured.

When asked about the relationship between his union and the Ministry of Agriculture, Zlochevsky replied that the relationship is workable.

“But they don’t invite us to cardinal meetings related, in particular, to market regulation. Probably, understanding and knowing our position is well-grounded that we will object ...we expressed everything at narrow meetings, and now we speak it in a public space. It was just that then there was a chance to influence, to agree at some working level, and there was no need to take it out into the public space. Now there are no such chances. Accordingly, we are using those tools that are in our hands.” 

Gazprom has earned a lot. But not really

Gazprom released financial results for the first nine months of 2021, which are much higher than last year’s. The company’s presentation said that the average price of gas sold to Europe in the third quarter was $313/100 cubic meters against $117 last year. Note that this is approximately two times lower than the price level observed in the spot market.

Gazprom confirmed that its gas supplies to Europe began to decline starting in September, attributable to reduced demand from consumers.

Interesting number

Two days remain before the redemption of the non-state-guaranteed bonds of the state corporation Rusnano. There are no messages from the company or its sole shareholder, the Russian government. In such a situation, on the morning of November 29, the yield on these securities exceeded 4 million percent; in the afternoon, this figure exceeded 9.7 million percent; by the end of the day, the yield was above 6.5 million percent.

Such a yield is nothing more than the effect of applying the standard formula for a security whose price is 94.5 percent two days before maturity.

Interesting statement

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Glushko has ruled out the possibility of returning the Russian mission to NATO in Brussels.  

“Everything is developing in such a way that we are unlikely to return,” Glushko said.

Need to know

From December 1, all foreigners entering Russia for more than 90 calendar days will undergo fingerprinting, photographing, and medical examination.