Putin’s reincarnation. Technology vs citizens. Russians want political rights and freedoms

November 23, 2021

Putin’s reincarnation

Many experts attribute the slow vaccination in Russia to the inconsistent information campaign the Russian authorities have been conducting since the start of the pandemic. At first, they said that the coronavirus is not much more dangerous than the flu. Then there were reports that traditional medicine could help against the virus. Doctors talked about the need to wear masks, while Russian politicians pointedly avoided using them. (Putin never wore a mask, although he put on an extra-protective costume while visiting a hospital.) The development of the Russian vaccine “Sputnik V,” on the one hand, was accompanied by hype—the Russian vaccine was approved for use as the very first and that its effectiveness indicators are the highest in the world. On the other hand, there were no real reports about its clinical trials. After the start of mass vaccination in Russia, Vladimir Putin said for four months that he was not yet ready for this without explaining the reasons for his refusal. And suddenly…

On Sunday, national television broadcast a 16-minute conversation between the Russian president and the deputy director of the Gamaleya Research Institute (developer of the Sputnik V vaccine), Denis Logunov. Putin is portrayed not as a strict boss but as a good interviewer. First, he announced that he got his booster, Sputnik Light vaccine (Sputnik V is a two-component vaccine; the first component is used for boosters and has received a separate name). Then Putin asked his interlocutor in detail about the countries in which the Russian vaccine is used, and what level of effectiveness it has demonstrated, including against the Delta variant of COVID. In fact, the Russian president did not deny that this conversation was staged and aimed at the ordinary Russian man in the street – “...here we have the opportunity to talk to all these alarming for people themes and to acquaint our people, our citizens with your vision of that happening...”           

To finally convince viewers that he supports vaccination and is not afraid of any negative consequences, Putin volunteered to take part in an experiment to test the effectiveness of a nasal vaccine, which is being carried out at the institute.

- Can I take part in this experiment? 

- Of course, Vladimir Vladimirovich... If you sign an informed consent, you can take part. 

- Agreed, I will definitely sign. We can do it today.

Experts will probably laugh at the very idea of ​​testing the effectiveness of a new vaccine on a person who just got his booster with the old one. But not every Russian TV viewer is a specialist.

Russia will fight global warming

The Russian Minister of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, said that Russia is satisfied with the results of the Glasgow summit. Russia will join the collection of 5% from the turnover of carbon credits to the Adaptation Fund through the so-called centralized mechanism of their recognition. This tax will be collected only on those carbon units authorized at the international level by a special body at the UN (the so-called supervisory body). All countries that signed the COP26 joined this mechanism. The collected funds will be invested in projects to reduce emissions in developing countries.

The minister noted the importance of the agreement reached on the mutual recognition of climate projects and the calculating of the carbon credits. During the discussion of this issue, Russia promoted an extension of the calculating period from five to 15 years (with the possibility of a threefold extension)—the main argument was that Russian forests grow much slower, and for a five-year period, they do not have time to reveal their potential on the absorption of carbon dioxide. 

In recent months, the position of the Russian authorities and, above all, of Vladimir Putin, on climate change has shifted significantly—from a sceptical grin (Russia ratified the Paris Climate Agreement only in 2019, three-and-a-half years after signing) to almost comprehensive supporting global initiatives. In my opinion, one of the most important impulses for such a swift shift was the catastrophe in Norilsk. Due to the thawing of the permafrost, the pillars of the diesel fuel storage tank were destroyed, and a large amount of the contents spilled onto the ground and got into surrounding rivers. Norilsk Nickel, which owned this reservoir, then paid a fine of 145 billion rubles ($2 billion).

Technology versus citizens’ approach

“The Federal Tax Service wants to almost completely abandon the practice of filing income declarations by individuals in 2024”, the head of the Federal Tax Service, Daniil Egorov, said at a meeting with President Putin. According to him, by 2024, the Federal Tax Service will receive all the information to account for tax deductions. Today, most Russians do not care about declaring their income—most taxes are paid by tax agents (employers and financial institutions). Declarations are submitted by about 14 million people, one in five working Russians. 

Over the past decade, the tax service in Russia has consistently promoted contactless and digital interaction with taxpayers that saves a lot of time and avoids corruption. However, the refusal by households to file tax returns undoubtedly counteracts their position as taxpayers. It does not give them the right to require the state to report on the budgetary expenditure. And this comes into direct conflict with the wishes of Russians. According to a survey by the Higher School of Economics conducted in early 2021, 60% of Russians are ready to pay more taxes, provided that this money is spent on priority areas for people (health care and education) and is controlled by society...  

Finally

President Putin signed a law allowing a jobseeker to approach an employer from another region, undergo a remote interview, and sign an employment contract in electronic form without duplication on paper. Until this change, the conclusion of an employment contract had to be carried out offline with the signing of paper documents.

Russia is slowly moving away from the bureaucratic legacy of the Soviet Union while retaining many forms and methods of the old-style business regulation. The signed law will play a positive role in developing the labor market and contribute to the greater digitalization of Russian business. 

Damn dozen fell under the law

Roskomnadzor, the federal agency in charge of controlling media and the internet, has published a register of foreign companies that need to comply with the law on the “landing” of IT corporations in Russia. The list includes Google, TikTok, Zoom, Apple, Spotify, Twitch, Meta Platforms, Telegram, Pinterest, Likeme Pte. Ltd., Twitter, Discord, Viber.  

The law obliges foreign technology corporations with a daily audience of over 500,000 users from Russia to establish their official representative offices or branches from January 1, 2022.

The fight against the pandemic continues

According to the government’s operational data, the number of deaths from coronavirus has been in a narrow range of 1,240-1,255 for two weeks. On the one hand, given the declining number of new infections, this may mean that Russia is passing the turning point of the negative trend. On the other hand, repeated cases of manipulation of statistics by the regional and federal authorities make me refrain from confidently supporting this thesis.

One thing is for sure, the regional authorities have gained greater freedom in choosing tactics to counter the pandemic—which, of course, is correct for such a vast and diverse country.

So, in Tatarstan, from Monday, a ban was introduced on the use of urban and intercity transport, and on visiting cinemas, entertainment, and sports events, for those who cannot show a vaccination QR code or demonstrate proof of medical contraindications to vaccination. According to the mayor’s office of the capital of Tatarstan, Kazan, in the first half of the day, 0.23 per cent of passengers were not allowed to travel by public transport. (For those who received my last essay, a short addition: Because the QR code system is under the control and management of the authorities, it is possible to invalidate any code and restrict the right of movement for political opponents, both within the country and for coming to Russia or exiting from it.)   

Russians wants political rights and freedoms

According to a survey by the Levada-Center, the right to life, liberty, and personal security remain the most important for Russians. Also, the five most important rights and freedoms include the right to medical care, the right to a fair trial, freedom of speech, and the inviolability of property and home. The right to an independent court entered the top five for the first time in 2019, displacing the right to free education, good conditions, and fair wages. For the first time, the top five included the right to freedom of speech, replacing the right to social protection and a decent standard of living.  

These data suggest that Russians, who are widely viewed as supporters of the paternalistic state, are slowly turning toward political rights. Changes in public opinion take a long time. The steadily growing trend of support for political rights and freedoms, in my opinion, is a reaction to a decade of lacking growth in real incomes—today, they are 10% lower than in 2013. Of course, the figures from this poll could not be directly converted into election results (especially because the election results in Russia are subject to solid falsification by the authorities). Still, they undoubtedly indicate that the Kremlin’s propaganda machine has reached its limit in suppressing Russian interest in political life. And, perhaps, this is the reason for the intensification of political repression in recent months.

America is indispensable

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly spoke about Russia’s desire to involve the United States in negotiations on implementing the Minsk agreements on the settlement of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine. “We proceed from the assumption that the United States, after all, perhaps understands the current situation a little better. But the fact that they can influence Kyiv more strongly than any other probably does not cause any doubts,” the minister said. 

The collapse of the dream

On Friday evening, the state corporation Rusnano announced a meeting with creditors and major holders of its bonds, during which was “discussed the financial results of the Company and possible scenarios of restructuring in the interests of creditors. It was stated that the accumulated excessive debt and the current financial model of the Company require adjustments. At the present time, it is possible to work out a compromise version of the situation, which will avoid the most adverse scenarios.” Translated from the language of investors, this means that the company announced its inability to service the debt and invites investors and creditors to negotiate its restructuring.    

Rusnano was established in September 2007 on the initiative of Anatoly Chubais (one of the key reformers at the beginning of the ’90s), who was its head until December 2020. According to his plan, Rusnano was to function as a venture capital investment fund in nanotechnology, ensuring the development of new industries in Russia. The capital of Rusnano was formed at the expense of the federal budget (more than 105 billion rubles, approximately $4.1 billion as of the date of deposit), and its investment was partially funded by its bonds guaranteed by the federal government. Government guarantees cover the principal amount of the debt, leaving interest payments unsecured. 

After the announcement of negotiations with creditors, the Central bank sent an order to the Moscow Exchange to stop trading in Rusnano bonds, which is 71.6 billion rubles. ($1 billion). (I will note in parentheses that this was a bizarre decision: On Friday evening, at the end of the trading day, to announce the suspension of trading and to resume on Monday morning.)