Putin's speech. Three bullet points
February 21, 2023
Most comments about today Vladimir Putin’s Address to the Parliament had a subdued and calm tone, but it seems everyone has much to think about.
First, Putin failed to articulate the causes and ultimate goals of the war. Moreover, he did not even try to do this, limiting himself to rehashing what he had already said many times. On the one hand, this is ridiculous because what is chewed is not tasty. But on the other hand, “We cannot be led astray, if we don’t care where we go,” or “Movement is everything, and the goal is nothing. The urge to move toward a goal you can’t articulate is a sign of severe manic disorder. The maniac is notoriously unconstrained or restricted in manifesting his desires—his inner moral values are so distorted that they are almost invisible. All hope lies in external (this does not mean “foreign”) constraints.
Second, Putin continues to create a parallel reality and his own rules of international relations, trying to drag everyone else into it. The START-3 Treaty does not provide for “suspension,” much less unilateral suspension. Each party has the right to withdraw from the treaty or propose amendments to it, which can be accepted or rejected by the other party. “Suspension” of this treaty will be the subject of serious analysis in Washington: Doesn’t this mean that Russia is not subject to restrictions on the number of nuclear warheads, their deployment sites, on the types of launchers? And if Russia removes these obligations, should the U.S. abide by its own? In short, Putin’s relations with the West take Russia back to the late 1960s, when there were no gas-tube deals or arms limitation treaties.
Third, Putin has implicitly confirmed that he is the author of the phrase “No Putin, no Russia,” accidentally pronounced by the Duma’s speaker Volodin. After today’s speech, there should be no doubt that no rational arguments or deterioration of the economy will hold him back in his decision to continue and increase the intensity of the war (moreover, the day before Putin’s speech, Rosstat exceeded the plan for optimism and almost proved that there was no decline in the economy last year). Putin has convinced himself that Russia has enough resources and capabilities to produce both guns and butter. There should be no doubt about his determination to build any number of guns.
What’s the “bottom line”? The Russian version of the saying - A leopard can’t change his spots – speaks as follows: The grave shall mend the hump. Political grave, at least.