Russia in Chinese trailer. Navalny confirms bullying. Promising doesn't mean wedding

Shadow diplomacy

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with the head of the CIA, William Burns.
“Yes, such a telephone conversation took place,” said Peskov. “We discussed bilateral relations, a crisis situation in diplomatic practice, exchanged views on regional conflicts.” As well, the most pressing cybersecurity issues were mentioned. 

We may assume that both sides are ready to take steps toward each other in normalizing the work of their embassies. But they have to consider the entire set of mutual claims and look for compromises. The main discussion concerns the actions of representatives of the intelligence structures under the guise of diplomatic status, as well as hacker attacks.

This phone call was not reported on the Kremlin’s website.

Soviet blah-blah-blah

President Putin approved the foundations of the state policy in the sphere of strategic planning in Russia. The 18-page document lacks any specifics. But the phrase “strategic planning” is repeated 158 times. (16 times on page 5).

Back in the USSR!

No time for meeting you

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed he does not intend to participate in the meeting of the Normandy Four (Germany, Russia, Ukraine, France) at the level of foreign ministers. He said that during a meeting with his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian in Rome, the latter proposed this meeting in Paris on November 11. 

“I told him that, firstly, we would like to receive a reaction from our colleagues to substantive proposals, because it is the substantive aspect of the matter that has priority, and not the protocol agreement…” said the Russian minister. He added that he asked if Le Drian had seen Moscow’s proposals sent to Paris earlier.

“He replied in the negative, had not yet had time to look at them. But again he began to strongly emphasize the need to meet on November 11. I confirmed to him that, firstly, we are waiting for a reaction to our proposals, and, secondly, on November 11, even if these agreements would have already matured and the substantive part would have been ready, I have a very dense program here on November 11, including the visit of the foreign minister of one of the friendly countries,” Lavrov said.

“Nevertheless, the other day we received a joint message from the Foreign Ministers of Germany and France, where November 11 is designated almost as an uncontested date. I’m not talking about diplomatic etiquette, it’s just humanly uncivilized... Nothing will be on November 11. New dates are not discussed,” Lavrov summed up.

Obviously, the implementation of the Minsk agreements has reached a dead end. On the one hand, the position of the Ukrainian authorities, which insist on a de facto revision of the content of the agreements, is absolutely inflexible. On the other hand, Russia is demonstrating its adamant position and underscoring the West’s inability to force it to change its behavior. Moreover, the Kremlin demonstrates that its position is being understood by the West. Thus, Sergey Lavrov said that during his visit to Moscow, CIA Director William Burns, as well as U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland earlier, confirmed the need to comply with the Minsk agreements, including the granting of a special status to Donbas.

However, all parties involved in discussing the situation in the East of Ukraine agree to maintain the status quo. Each for its own reasons. Ukraine, both at the level of the political elite and at the level of public sentiment, does not really want the return of Donbas but cannot declare that it does not strive for this. Russia needs Donbas as a hostage for forcing the West into dialogue and as a lever to destabilize the political situation in Ukraine. Germany and France achieved the main thing—serious hostilities ceased in February 2015, and the North Stream - 2 as a by-product. The United States has withdrawn from the conflict resolution from the outset and is watching with satisfaction the futile efforts of France and Germany. The separatists who control Donbas continue to use this region to enrich themselves.

In private

The meeting of the Supreme Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, about which I wrote on November 5, took 55 minutes. Immediately after that, a telephone conversation between Putin and Lukashenko took place, which, according to various sources, lasted from 1.5 to 3.5 hours.

Russia got what it wanted

Today it became known that on October 20, the Ministers of Defense of Russia and Belarus Sergey Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin signed documents on the 25-year extension of the agreements on the deployment of two Russian military facilities on Belarusian territory—the naval communications center in Vileika and the radar station in Baranovichi.

Radar “Volga,” located near the city of Baranovichi, is part of the structure of the space forces. “Volga” is able to detect ballistic missiles and space objects, identify them, and track their trajectory, calculating the start and fall points. In addition to the territory of Western Europe, the station controls patrol areas of NATO submarines in the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea.

The Vileika communications center provides super-long-wave communications between the General Staff of the Russian Navy and nuclear submarines on alert in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans, as well as radio and electronic intelligence.

These facilities are critical to the Russian military. Their transfer to Russian territory would be very expensive, and therefore there was no doubt that Russia, in one way or another, would reach an agreement on extending the period of control over them.

Why Russia needs Syria

Over 90% of military pilots have combat experience, and some have made 400 sorties, said Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu.

“Virtually all commanders of all echelons, commanders of regiments, brigades, divisions, armies, commanders of districts, chiefs of staff, right down to battalion commanders, went through the Syrian operation,” he said. In July, Shoigu said that during the operation in Syria, the Russian military tested several hundred types of weapons in practice.  

Russia in Chinese trailer

Russia and China have signed a contract for the joint creation of a heavy helicopter, the head of the Russian Helicopters (RHC), Andrei Boginsky, said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Intensive negotiations have been going on since 2008, and on June 25 of this year we signed a contract,” he said. The helicopter will take about 13 years to build, he added.

According to an intergovernmental agreement signed in 2016, the lead developer will be the Chinese company Avicopter. It will organize the heavy helicopter program, including design, prototype construction, testing, certification, training, and serial production, as well as the promotion of the helicopter to the market and overall coordination of work. The RHC will provide technology, as well as develop a technical proposal and individual machine systems on a contract basis: transmission, tail rotor, and anti-icing system.

It is the first time in my memory that Russia publicly acknowledges the secondary role in the technological project with China. You have to see Putin’s face at this moment. 

Avoiding sanctions

RHC is developing a single-engine helicopter. According to Boginsky, the project began in 2016, and now the company is building the first flight prototype and creating a bench base for ground and flight tests. The main work is going on at a subsidiary in Europe—in Italy, in order to ensure that the new helicopter can be certified by EASA [European Aviation Safety Agency] and FAA [Federal Aviation Administration of the USA]. The state corporation Rostec, which is under U.S. and EU sanctions, is the controlling shareholder of RHC (over 87% of shares). This, as you understand, does not interfere with the implementation of the project.        

Navalny confirms bullying

Kremlin doesn’t care“I really have a ‘prison in a prison’ and isolation—I know almost nothing, except for me personally... the hairdresser was beaten for talking to me. We really exchanged a few words with him. I thought—where did he disappear?” This is how Alexei Navalny commented on TV Dozhd’s report on bullying in the colony.    

The Kremlin does not monitor the conditions of detention of Alexei Navalny and will not comment on publications on this topic, said the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

“No. We do not consider it necessary. This is a topic that concerns the Federal Penitentiary Service, and this topic is unlikely to have anything to do with the Kremlin,” he said in answer to the question of whether the Kremlin paid attention to the TV report about the conditions in which Navalny found himself in the prison colony, adding that he does not consider it necessary to check it.

The Kremlin is trying in every possible way to belittle the role and importance of Alexei Navalny in Russian politics and denies the political motives of his sentence. It would be strange if Peskov admitted that bullying in the colony is carried out on the initiative and orders of the Kremlin.

Promising doesn’t mean wedding

On October 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the CEO of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, to begin scheduled work by November 8 to increase the volume of gas in its underground storages in Europe—in Austria and Germany.  

Today is November 8. The CEO of Ukrainian gas pipelines Sergey Makogon indicated the volume of transit of Gazprom to the EU through Ukraine amounted to 88 million cubic meters today. “Will there be an increase in gas supplies to Europe? So far, we have not received additional transit requests. Moreover, transit is still less than booked and paid for by Gazprom (109 million cubic meters per day).”

In the first four weeks of October, Gazprom pumped a little less than 86 million cubic meters per day through Ukraine. It should come as no surprise that gas prices in the European spot market have increased by 10% today.

As we say in Russia, promising doesn’t mean wedding.

Humanity is possible. But say “guilty” first

On June 15, 2020, the Moscow City Court sentenced Paul Whelan, who is a citizen of the United States, Ireland, and Canada, as well as a British citizen, to 16 years in a maximum security colony for espionage. Whelan pleaded not guilty but decided not to appeal the verdict, because he believed, according to lawyers, that the United States would agree to exchange him, and hoped for “the goodwill of President Vladimir Putin.”   

Whelan's lawyer, Vladimir Zherebenkov, said that no negotiations about his return to the United States are currently under way. “All negotiations, including the possible exchange, extradition, or pardon of Whelan, are not currently under way, everything is suspended,” the lawyer said. He specified that, in his opinion, this is because in the United States, “Whelan is considered a hostage.” Zherebenkov noted that “Whelan will hardly be extradited to the United States without the American side recognizing the Russian verdict.” 

Must belong to the state

State Corporation Rosatom is negotiating the purchase of power-generating company Quadra from Mikhail Prokhorov’s ONEXIM Group. If this deal goes through, it will become another step that destroys the ideology of reforms in the Russian electric power industry in 2005-2008. Then the state holding RAO UES was divided into generation, grid companies, and sales structures. The ideology of the reform provided for the state to withdraw from competitive businesses (generation and sales companies) while maintaining control over the backbone grids. After the acquisition of Quadra, the state will consolidate 70% of the Russian installed capacity in its hands and is ready to expand its share further. 

Grain export declines

SovEkon, the leading Russian think tank on agriculture, has cut its forecast for wheat exports from Russia for the current agricultural year (July 2021 to June 2022) to 34 million tons. Last year, grain exports from Russia amounted to 48 million tons. The drop in exports is associated with a decrease in the harvest forecast—from 133.5 million tons last year to 119.4 million tons, estimated by SovEkon, 123 million tons—estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia.  

The main factors hindering the grain export from Russia are the level of export duties, which are growing along with the rise in world prices, and the continuing strengthening of the ruble, which amounted to 10% over the past year, accompanied by the high domestic inflation (8% in the past 12 months). In this situation, Russian exporters are waiting for the world prices to grow more.