September 21, 2022
Yesterday’s address was delivered today
Presidential plagiarism
Three versions to choose from
Annexation be!
No fear!
Aftershocks
All animals are equal but...
Just censorship
He has a dream
Yesterday’s address was delivered today
Vladimir Putin’s speech, announced the day before, was shown on Wednesday morning. Immediate attention was drawn to the announcement of general mobilization in Russia. Still, in my opinion, it is essential to note that the Russian dictator also announced the impending annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories.
Presidential plagiarism
I appeal today to you, to all the citizens of our country... to the soldiers and officers... to our brothers and sisters—the inhabitants of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions, other areas liberated from the neo-Nazi regime.
The first words of Putin’s address were an aggravated remake of the beginning of Stalin’s speech on July 3, 1941.
Citizens! Brothers and sisters! Soldiers of our army and navy! To you, I address my friends!
Three versions to choose from
In his speech, the Russian leader once again tried to explain the war’s purpose in Ukraine and confused three versions.
The first, as is traditional, is that the West has threatened and is threatening Russia’s territorial integrity and independence.
We will talk about the necessary, urgent steps to protect the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of Russia... and about the aggressive policy of some Western elites, who are trying to maintain their dominance, and for this, they are trying to block, suppress any sovereign independent centers of development, to continue roughly imposing their will on other countries and peoples, to impose their pseudo-values. The purpose of this West is to weaken, divide, and ultimately destroy our country.
The second version is that the invasion of Ukraine began to free the independent republics, the LNR and DNR, “from the Ukrainian occupation.”
[It will be] about supporting the desire and will of our compatriots to determine their future ... the decision on a pre-emptive military operation was vital and the only possible one. Its main goal—the liberation of Donbas’ entire territory—remained unchanged.
And somewhat later, Putin said that the occupation of Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions was also part of the Kremlin’s military plans.
During the main tasks of protecting Donbas, our troops, based on the plans and decisions of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff on the general strategy of action, also liberated significant areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions and some other sites from the neo-Nazis.
Regardless of which version dominates Vladimir Putin’s brain, the decision to mobilize is, in my opinion, evidence that 1) Putin is receiving quite adequate information about the situation on the front, and 2) the Russian military was able to prove to the President that they cannot achieve the goals of the military operation without building up the size of the military group.
Today our Armed Forces operate on a line of contact that exceeds a thousand kilometers, confronting not only neo-Nazi formations but also the entire military machine of the collective West. In this situation... to protect our homeland, its sovereignty and territorial integrity, to ensure the safety of our people and people in the liberated territories, I consider it necessary to support the proposal of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff to conduct partial mobilization in the Russian Federation.
Annexation be!
In the middle of his speech, the Russian President mentioned, as if inadvertently, the decision of the occupation administrations to hold referendums on joining Russia. Although this was not the focus of his speech, his message was unmistakable. Concerning the occupied territories, the Kremlin intends to implement the “Crimean scenario”: Referendum—application to join Russia—signing of a treaty—an amendment of the Russian Constitution.
We cannot; we do not have any moral right to hand over our loved ones to the torturers, and we cannot but respond to their sincere desire to determine their fate. The parliaments of the People’s Republic of Donbas, as well as the civil-military administrations of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions, have decided to hold referendums on the future of these territories and have asked us, Russia, to support such a step.
I emphasize we will do everything to ensure safe conditions for referendums so that people can express their will. And we will support the decision on the future that most residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Regions will take.
No fear!
The last part of Vladimir Putin’s speech sounded frankly weak. Although at first glance, it seems to be an attempt at nuclear blackmail, the addressee of this message is the NATO bloc, which is doing its best not to get involved in a military conflict as a participant, and, least of all, dreams of invading Russia.
We constantly hear threats against our country and our people. Some irresponsible politicians in the West... say that Russia must be defeated by all means on the battlefield, followed by the deprivation of political, economic, cultural, and any kind of sovereignty, with the complete plundering of our country.
Nuclear blackmail is also in play. I am talking about... the statements by some high-ranking representatives of leading NATO states about the possibility and admissibility of using nuclear weapons of mass destruction against Russia.
I want to remind those who make such statements about Russia that our country also possesses various means of destruction, some of which are more advanced than those of NATO countries. If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will, of course, use all the means at our disposal to defend Russia and our people. This is not a bluff.
Admittedly, these words were much softer than Putin’s earlier statements on the same topic:
Whoever tries to hinder us, much less create threats for our country and our people, must know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced before in your history. We are prepared for any development of events. All the decisions necessary in this regard have been taken. (February 24)
Having said this, I don’t mean to suggest that Putin’s nuclear blackmail is a mythical threat: The events of recent months have shown that for the Russian dictator, the limits of what is acceptable in contemporary international relations (and not only) are far beyond what can be explained rationally. His assessment of costs and results is skewed toward mythical values, and his lack of strategic vision means that the future harmful effects of his tactical victories are discounted to zero on the horizon for a few months.
At the same time, Putin’s tactics involve a gradual build-up of pressure, and it is not in his habit to lay out the trump ace on the first move. Putin is trying to restrain the West’s desire to increase the supply of modern weapons to Ukraine and reminds it that it has a “red button.” I’m not sure that scares anyone.
Aftershocks
Mobilization, no matter how fast it proceeds, is shifting Russian life into a new militarized reality: The military has been given the right to decide how many people and from which region to put under arms, how much money the budget should allocate for the army maintenance and the purchase of weapons. Military commissars all over the country issued orders prohibiting persons liable for military service from leaving the regions where they are registered. In contrast, those who have mobilization orders and are not in their “home” region must go back to their registration place and report to the enlistment office without summons.
On Wednesday evening, spontaneous anti-war rallies were held in major Russian cities, with participants chanting anti-war slogans. Police dispersed all protests. According to OVD-Info, as of 11 p.m. Moscow time, more than 1,300 people in 38 cities had been detained and taken to police stations, including more than 520 in St. Petersburg and more than 500 in Moscow.
All animals are equal but...
The hosts of a YouTube channel created by supporters of Alexei Navalny called the sons of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov on live television. Presenting themselves as employees of enlistment offices, the journalists suggested that the young men report to the military registration and enlistment offices in connection with the announced mobilization.
The son of the head of government replied that he “has no desire to fight yet” and asked not to be added to the list of those who are already ready to go to the front.
Not yet; I’m working on my education. I graduated from Bauman Moscow State Technical University. Now I am going to the Higher School of Economics.
Nevertheless, Mishustin Jr. sadly agreed when the channel host began to insist on his appearance at the military registration and enlistment office.
Am I required by law to report? Then I will come at 10 a.m. tomorrow [to the enlistment office].”
Dmitry Peskov’s son was much more determined, refusing to “serve his motherland.
... Naturally, I will not come [to the enlistment office] tomorrow. If I am Mr. Peskov, you must understand how wrong it is for me to be there. In short! I will solve this on another level... If I must defend my homeland, I have no problem with that. I need to understand the practicality of my appearance there. I’m telling you about specific political nuances. It is not at your request that I am willing to go [to the front]. It’s what I’m told, and that’s what I’ll do. If Vladimir Vladimirovich tells me I should go there, I will.
Just censorship
Roskomnadzor [Russian media censor] informs the media and information resources of the need when preparing and publishing materials concerning the conduct of mobilization measures on the territory of the Russian Federation to use information and data obtained exclusively from federal and regional executive bodies...
Dissemination of false information entails liability under Article 13.15 of the Code of Administrative Offences of the Russian Federation.
Dissemination of false information on the Internet shall immediately block such materials following Article 15.3 of Federal Law No. 149-FZ, “On Information, Information Technology, and Information Protection.”
He has a dream
Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade is sure that by 2025 the level of technological independence of Russia in the field of oil and gas equipment will increase to 80% from the current 60%.
We expect to reach parameters closer to 80% in technological independence by 2025. There are all the prerequisites for this... We started in 2014 at just over 40% technological independence in oil and gas engineering. And today, the picture has changed dramatically—it is 60% of technological independence.