Trump’s Ukraine Deal: A Cynical Calculus

November 28, 2025

Express illustrations | Sourav Roy

The peace plan for Ukraine, which was almost agreed upon between Russia and the US and which has been put on the table for President Zelensky, is evidence of yet another zigzag in US foreign policy under President Trump. The first one happened at the very beginning of Trump’s presidency, when he announced that the US no longer intended to support Ukraine financially or with weapons (yet, this was the continuation of the late president Biden’s policy), shifting from the role of Ukraine’s supporter/partner to that of mediator. At the time, it seemed that this mediator’s sympathies lay with the weaker side, with the country that had been subjected to brutal, unprovoked aggression. But now that the mediation produced a 28-point document, and the mediator is openly stating that Ukraine must agree or say goodbye, it is clear that the US/Trump’s sympathies have shifted towards the Kremlin. However, should this come as a surprise?

Trump is the president of the US, and for him, US interests come first. Unfortunately for many, Ukraine and its problems do not concern Trump in the slightest. Due to his Christian/humanitarian values, he does not want Russians and Ukrainians to kill each other, and that is where it ends. Why should he be interested in a distant (in every sense of the word) Eastern European country, squeezed for centuries between Europe/Poland/Austria-Hungary, Russia, and Turkey? It does not control any strategic points on the globe, does not possess unique resources (don’t tell me about black soil — America has long since solved its food problems), with a corrupt government, with a president who staged a public brawl in the White House, refused to sign a non-binding agreement on rare earth metals immediately, and (don’t forget) refused to help Trump investigate Hunter Biden’s dealings in Ukraine? Yes, the country has been attacked, and yes, it is defending its freedom and independence with its last ounce of strength, but it is far away in Europe, so let the Europeans solve the problems of their continent. In case you believe that it matters to Trump who owns Donbass, you don’t understand anything about Trump’s vision of American foreign policy.

According to today’s White House (and maybe the previous one as well), the US faces two global challenges: Russia and China. The task is to leave one. With China, which dreams of becoming the future world leader, displacing America from this position, it is impossible to agree on anything; the list of disagreements is too long. And what serious disagreements are there with Russia (apart from the war)? Strictly speaking, none. Both sides are interested in resolving issues related to military confrontation (START, missile defense, flank restrictions, etc.). In wartime, negotiators take irreconcilable positions, pouring buckets of mud on each other, but when, imagine, the war ends, what prevents them from sitting down in Vienna and moving towards a compromise for months and years? No, of course, Putin’s Russia will not become a friend and comrade. Still, it will become a country that requires little time and effort, with the arrogant Putin kept on a short, seemingly sweet leash (G8, economic cooperation), which can be turned into a whip at any moment with a wave of the hand. Putin cannot sever trade ties with China (Russia has to sell its natural resources somewhere), yet China is not open to providing Russia with advanced technologies and equipment. Still, he will be categorically required to cease all cooperation in the military sphere (including maneuvers with Iran) and stop the transfer of weapons production technologies (if there are any left to transfer).

What needs to be done for this? Simple: put pressure on Ukraine to give Putin a small piece of its territory. Do you think this deal is beneficial or not so helpful from the point of view of US interests? And if we add the icing on the cake, Russia transfers 300 billion in frozen assets to US control.

(In parentheses, I’ll shout: Bravo, Putin! Hey, you son of a bitch! You realized that these assets would never be returned and that their loss would not create any problems for the Russian economy, and if you can’t resist, you have to take the lead! Agree, it would be much worse if Europe encumbered these assets with collateral and, in fact, used them to pay for American weapons that would go to Ukraine!)

However, what does “US control” mean? Two funds will be created immediately, the management of which will be transferred to the e.g. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, from whom no one can demand to spend this money on the reconstruction of Ukraine (first, it will be necessary to make sure that the new authorities of the country are honest and not corrupt, and then approve a reconstruction plan and find other sponsors; in short, we can wait two, three, or four years), nor on the implementation of Russian-American economic projects (precisely because it is simply impossible to come up with projects worth $150 billion). However, no one will prohibit these funds from placing the received funds in the money market, receiving a modest 3-4 percent return per year. Profits that will end up in the fund manager’s pocket.

In short, first find out how this 28-point plan contradicts Trump’s American interests, and then criticize it. The fact that these 28 points have shocked Ukraine and Europe with their cynicism is a problem for Ukraine and Europe, and if they are ready to reject Trump’s plan, then let them try to solve the problem of ending the war without him. “The Moor has done his deed, the Moor can go”; Trump wants to distance himself (from the problem of war) and deal with other issues, of which he has plenty.

PS: Don’t claim Trump betrayed Ukraine. The US made no formal commitments to Ukraine either before or during the war. Yet, Ukraine entered this war without alliances, despite the threat looming since 2014.

PPS: I believe that Putin is interested in ending the war. On the one hand, his entourage sees no advantage in continuing it, while the disadvantages continue accumulating. On the other hand, he sees that the economy is paying an increasingly high price for continuing the war. Considering this, Putin’s 28 points are not a “take it or leave it” offer; he is ready to make concessions during negotiations, but not so significant that Ukraine will get what it wants. Ukraine could only get what it wants by changing the situation on the front lines, and since the summer of 2023, there have been no signs of this happening, alas.