War. Day 1

February 25, 2022

I am so ashamed of my country

War. Without purpose or cause

Early Wednesday morning, 5:40 Moscow time, President Putin gave a somewhat confused address in which he announced the start of a “special military operation” against Ukraine. It is tough to understand this decision and even more challenging to understand its goals.

Formally, Putin referred to the appeal for military assistance from the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics and to Article 51 of the UN Charter, which gives states the right to individual and collective defense in case of aggression. But 1) the UN Charter provisions apply to countries recognized by the UN and that recognize the UN Charter. The LNR/DNR are not countries in this sense because no state in the world except Russia has recognized them. 2) Neither the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics nor Russian authorities have presented evidence of Ukraine’s aggression. 3) Russia’s military operation was not limited to parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts under Kyiv’s control but seized virtually all of Ukraine’s territory.

Informally, Putin explained the decision to go to war by his fears emanating from NATO’s actions.  

The further expansion of the infrastructure of the North Atlantic Alliance and the military development of Ukrainian territories that has begun is unacceptable to us. For the U.S. and its allies, this is the so-called policy of containment of Russia, obvious geopolitical dividends. And for our country, it is ultimately a matter of life and death, a matter of our historical future as a people. And this is not an exaggeration—it is so. This is a real threat not just to our interests but to the very existence of our state, its sovereignty. This is the red line that has been repeatedly talked about. They have crossed it.

True, Putin decided to start a war, not with NATO but with Ukraine.

Trying to explain the purpose of the Russian military invasion, Putin again used the myth of the oppression of the Russian-speaking population in eastern Ukraine.

 One cannot look at what is happening there without compassion. It was simply no longer possible to tolerate it. This nightmare, the genocide against the millions of people living there, had to be stopped immediately.

But when he began talking about the goals of the military operation, it became obvious that the only clearly stated goal was to change the country’s political leadership. 

Its [military operation] purpose is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse genocide by the Kyiv regime for eight years. And to this end, we will seek to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine and bring to justice those who have committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.

Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian leader, was more cynical in outlining the goals of the war: “Ideally, we should liberate Ukraine, cleanse it of Nazis, pro-Nazi people, and ideologies.” It should be recalled that the word “cleansing” appeared during the second Chechen war, and in practice, it meant the total annihilation of at least the male population of a populated area. If Peskov adequately sets out his boss’ ideas, we are in for a bloody event.

Putin’s words on how Russia will achieve its goals sounded quite cynical.

At the same time, our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force.

Updates from the fronts

Russian aggression began with massive missile strikes on critical Ukrainian military facilities—airfields, control centers, radar stations, weapons depots, and military equipment bases. Most of these strikes were launched from the territory of the Russian Federation. Bombardments targeted the outskirts of Ukraine’s most significant cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnepr, and Kryvyi Rih. Later, Russian aviation went into action: Planes and helicopters, meeting little or no resistance from Ukrainian aviation, which had suffered severe losses from missile strikes, attacked military camps and locations of Ukrainian military personnel. 

After that, an invasion by Russian ground troops from four directions (north, northeast, east, and south) began at once, with varying results. 

The Russian troops that attacked Ukraine from Crimea quickly reached the Dnieper River near Kherson and Novaya Kakhovka and took control of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station and the North Crimean Canal (which allows water to flow to Crimea, and which Ukraine blocked in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea).

Attacking from the north, from the territory of Belarus, Russian troops were able to cover about half the distance to Kyiv and, after fierce fighting, captured the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, located 135 km (85 miles) from the Ukrainian capital. At the same time, a small detachment of Russian paratroopers landed at Gostomel Airport (30 kilometers/19 miles from the center of Kyiv) and prepared to receive 18 planes departing from Pskov (where the Airborne Division is located). By Thursday evening, the Ukrainian military regained control of the airport.

Russian troops advancing from the northeast and east had gone deep into Ukrainian territory. Apparently, they could not enter Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city (50 km/30 miles from the border), nor occupy significant towns in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk). 

Threat to the world

At the end of his address, Vladimir Putin uttered a phrase that I unequivocally interpret as a blatant threat to use nuclear weapons against countries that might decide to provide military assistance to Ukraine. 

Now a few important, essential words for those who might be tempted on the outside to interfere in the current events. Whoever tries to interfere with us, much less threaten our country, our people, must know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced before in your history. We are prepared for any development of events. All decisions necessary in this regard have been made.

Earlier, when I assessed the prospects for the crisis, I was confident that it would not come to war. I always saw Putin as a rational politician who made decisions based on his distinct set of principles and values (which did not correspond to mine, but which I understood) and whose every decision moved him toward his goal. In my opinion, the war against Ukraine made no sense to Putin and had no purpose that I was willing to consider rational. What happened on February 24, and the way the Russian leader explained his decisions, made me change my attitude toward him: His decision to invade Ukraine was made under the influence of emotions that overwhelmed him, the source of which was a combination of megalomania, the mania of fear, and conviction in his messianic purpose.

Sanctions

This time, it didn’t take long for Western countries to respond. First, the United Kingdom and then the United States announced new sanctions against Russia, traditionally divided into three blocks: Personal, financial, sectoral, and technological sanctions. The most robust step (off the top of my head) was the disconnection of the largest Russian bank, Sberbank, from the system of dollar settlements and the complete blocking of activity of the second-largest Russian bank, VTB, as the U.S. and the UK decided.  

I will need more time to analyze the announced sanctions thoroughly, and you will receive an appropriate supplement to this issue. Moreover, the European Union has not yet decided on sanctions related to the outbreak of war.

Mosaic of the Day

1. On Thursday morning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy imposed martial law in the country and severed diplomatic relations with Russia.

2. Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that 137 servicemen were killed in the fighting on Thursday.

3. In an overnight video message, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had not received an answer from NATO leaders as to whether Ukraine could be a member of the alliance, and in such a situation is ready to discuss Ukraine's neutral status with Russia.

   "Today we heard from Moscow that they are ready to talk about the neutral status of Ukraine. <...> I asked 27 European leaders today whether Ukraine will be in NATO. Everyone is afraid, they do not answer. We are not afraid, we are not afraid of anything, we are not afraid to defend our power, we are not afraid of Russia, we are not afraid to talk to Russia about everything: about security guarantees for our country, about neutral status."

4. Russia's media censor, Roskomnadzor, has officially imposed censorship, ordering all media outlets to cover the war in Ukraine only using Russian official information. Violators will be punished by a fine of up to 5 million rubles ($60,000).

5. After Putin's statement about the start of the war, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 100 rubles in the cash currency market (down 22% by the end of the previous day). Before the start of the trading day, the Bank of Russia announced that it would carry out currency interventions to maintain the ruble exchange rate. The volume of interventions is still unknown.

6. Russian stock indices fell by more than 50% in the first two hours of trading. After the announcement of the sanctions pact by President Biden, major stocks rose in price and the ruble strengthened by 2%. By the end of the trading day, stock indexes were 35-40% below closing levels. 

7. The Bank of Russia will hold a repo auction on Friday, where Russian banks will be offered loans worth 2 trillion rubles ($24.5 bln., 1.5% of GDP) with receipt equal on Friday and Monday (0.75% of GDP). 

8. The Bank of Russia has increased the limit for foreign-currency lending to banks from $15 billion to $50 billion.

9. The administration of the Mayakovsky Theater in Moscow warned the actors that public criticism of the actions of the Russian authorities would be regarded as high treason.