What was the meeting about? The tension needs to be raised. Pessimism and apathy

January 12, 2022

What was the meeting about?

Vladimir Putin held a meeting with permanent members of the Security Council in the Kremlin to discuss “the organization of work in the border regions of Russia... the problems of security and infrastructure.” Detailed information about the meeting has not been published, so we have only to focus on small details. First, the announced topic may cover both Ukraine and Afghanistan. Second, presidential aide Maksim Oreshkin was the speaker on socio-economic problems at the meeting, not Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who was present. 

Ukraine might have been discussed, considering the talks that had begun between representatives of Russia and Western countries. The meeting between Sergey Ryabkov and Wendy Sherman the day before in Geneva helped to frankly outline the sides’ positions but did not bring them any closer. The meeting likely discussed the hypothetical sanctions that U.S. officials have recently talked about and their impact on the Russian economy.

Afghanistan may have arisen after a meeting of CSTO leaders the day before, when the president of Tajikistan, Emmomali Rahmon, drew attention to the situation on the Tajik-Afghan border. That meeting was followed by a telephone conversation between Putin and Rahmon, during which specific parameters of possible military and financial aid from Russia were discussed.

The tension needs to be raised

Speaking at a collegium of the Russian Foreign Ministry in mid-November, Vladimir Putin publicly announced that the task of Russian diplomacy was to constantly maintain tension in relations with Western countries, or rather within Western countries.

“... our recent warnings are still making themselves felt and are having a certain effect: A certain tension has arisen there [in the West] after all... this state must be maintained with them as long as possible.”

The start of the dialogue with the U.S. does not mean that this task is no longer relevant. The day after the Geneva meeting, the Russian Defense Ministry reported: 

“About 3,000 troops... began combat training at training ranges in the Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Smolensk regions [neighboring Ukraine].... Each unit will conduct a training battle with a live-fire stage, during which crews of armored vehicles and tanks will show joint action skills and hit targets that simulate enemy vehicles and manpower. A total of about 300 pieces of military equipment will be involved in the event.”

Unlike sanctions, with which the U.S. administration only threatens Russia but finds no trigger to impose them, the Kremlin is ready at any moment to start “live fire.” So far, on the Russian territory. 

Is the mission over?

President Tokayev of Kazakhstan has announced that the withdrawal of the CSTO troops from his country will begin in two days. However, this process will not be fast and may take at least 10 days. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who spoke after him, stated that “the execution of tasks by the collective peacekeeping forces will be carried out until the situation in Kazakhstan is completely stabilized, of course, by decision of the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan.”

Both Tokayev and Putin are hoping that no one would form an attitude toward Russian troops as occupiers (as they publicly stated the day before at the CSTO meeting). But I cannot dismiss the idea that soon a decision will be made within the CSTO to establish a permanent base of this organization in one of the Central Asian countries to “maintain security guarantees” in this region. Because the CSTO is an international organization, the status of the military personnel at such a base will be equal to that of the UN peacekeeping forces. The fact that 90% of servicemen will be from Russia will be an arithmetic consequence of comparing the military capabilities of the member countries.

Omicron is approaching

After a short period of calm, when the Russian authorities managed to put out a powerful COVID pandemic outbreak in the fall, Russia faces the Omicron variant. This was discussed at a meeting of the government task force for counteracting the pandemic, headed by the Russian Prime Minister.

Although the number of COVID reported cases in the beginning of January was almost 20% lower than at the end of December, this does not mean the situation improved. According to the Chief Sanitary Inspector of Russia, Anna Popova, during the holidays, the number of tests also decreased by 20%—i.e., the situation has been stabilized on a high level. In addition, she reported that 305 cases of the Omicron variant have already been detected in Russia (there were 109 such cases at the end of December), including through domestic transmission. Popova said her agency’s model indicates that “in a pessimistic scenario, the forecast for a possible increase in the number of [daily] COVID reported cases [grows to] six figures.” So far, the maximum number of daily cases was recorded in early November, slightly exceeding 40,000.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said city authorities expect a jump in the number of cases in the coming days: “We are really in the risk zone, and within 7-10 days, I think, we will observe a significant increase in cases.” 

One less problem?

Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Marat Khusnullin said that Russian geologists have found significant freshwater reserves in the Azov Sea area. According to him, “slightly mineralized water was found, which is conditionally potable. It is suitable for technical purposes: irrigation, heating, and cooling systems.” At the same time, he added that the water can be used for household purposes and for drinking, after special purification. 

According to preliminary data, about 90 billion-100 billion cubic meters of water are hidden at a shallow depth in closed caves. The needs of Crimea are planned to take no more than 1% of this volume—about 1 billion cubic meters per year. The specialists emphasize that the main challenge is to not replace the freshwater with salted during the extraction from the caves. The Deputy Prime Minister said that implementing the project for the extraction and distribution of water will allow Russia to “close the problem of drought” in Crimea.

Until 2014, the peninsula was almost wholly supplied with water, which came through the North Crimean Canal from Ukraine. After Russia annexed the peninsula, the Ukrainian government blocked this route, and Crimea began to experience constant water shortages. 

Pragmatism wins

Although Russian Industry Minister Denis Manturov promises domestic companies will provide all types of civilian aircraft in the coming years, not everyone is willing to wait for a romantic future. 

The state leasing company, GTLK, has signed an agreement with private Kamchatka Airlines to deliver three Cessna Grand Caravan aircraft in the first half of this year. “The deal has been approved by the government commission on import substitution... Now, the parties are preparing to formalize an option for nine more similar aircraft with delivery in 2023-2027,” the company said in a statement.