August 2, 2022
Is it possible to enter the same river twice?
War has become the norm
What happens if...
The annexation continues
Well, maybe
Is it possible to enter the same river twice?
The Bank of Russia has published its assessment and forecast of the economic situation in the country, which formed the foundation for the recent decision to reduce the key rate sharply. The central thesis contained in the report is that the recession in the Russian economy is going more smoothly, and the post-crisis recovery will be slower than expected in the spring.
At the same time, the Bank of Russia did not change its viewpoint on the duration of the recession: The transition of the Russian economy to growth is still expected in the second half of 2023. I found no arguments explaining why the Russian economy should start growing in a year, except for one: The trajectory of the current crisis, according to the Bank of Russia experts, will repeat to the smallest detail the trajectory of the 2008-09 crisis.
This approach to forecasting did not cause disagreement among the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia. In my opinion, such a method of building the forecast is more than doubtful: The main driver of the recovery of the Russian economy in 2009-10 was the confident growth of oil prices; at the same time, with the forecast of the Bank of Russia for 2023-24, the price of the main commodity of Russian export is falling. Implicitly, the experts expect a reduction in the Russian energy export because of the sanctions. In addition, the forecast authors worsened their estimates of the dynamics of the population’s real income, which will not become positive until the end of 2023, thus restraining the growth of private consumption.
The most severe blow to the optimistic expectations is caused by the change in the evaluation of investment activity in the Russian economy: The growth of investments, which is expected no earlier than 2024, will be very sluggish, in the range of 1.5%-3%. This forecast leaves no room for import substitution, which Vladimir Putin hopes for.
War has become the norm
A poll by the Levada Center shows that the attitude of Russians to the war in Ukraine has stabilized.
The share of people who closely follow the situation around Ukraine has not practically changed: 25% follow very closely and 31% quite closely. Concern about the events in the neighboring country remains at a high level: 44% of respondents are very concerned about what is happening, and 37% are somewhat concerned. The level of support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine has not changed: 48% definitely support, 28% somewhat support, 8% definitely do not support, and 10% somewhat do not support.
The most significant support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine is observed among the older age group—84% support; the lowest level of support is typical for young respondents (18-24): Among them, 57% express support, and 34% of young respondents do not support the actions of the Russian military.
The only significant change occurred in the respondents’ expectations concerning the duration of the war. In comparison with the May opinion poll, the proportion of those who think that the war will end within six months has decreased from 37% to 27%, and the share of those who believe that the war will last for more than six months has increased from 44% to 52%.
What happens if...
A Russian soldier which took part in the military actions on the territory of Ukraine filed a claim to the Investigative Committee of Russia demanding to bring to criminal responsibility certain officers for abuse of authority and fighters of the “Wagner PMC”—for the illegal deprivation of liberty. The statement was published by the lawyer Maxim Grebenyuk, who did not disclose his client's name.
The soldier served in one of the units on Sakhalin, from which he was sent to Ukraine. After being wounded, he went to a hospital, where he was denied assistance and was not granted an exemption from continuing military service. After that, he “decided to refuse further participation in special tasks”, for which he filed a corresponding report. In his words: “... together with other soldiers who refused to participate in the special operation, I was placed in an isolated room in the military commandant’s office in [the village of] Borovoye, Luhansk region.” According to the soldier, there were no basic amenities, and no meals, and instead of a toilet, there was a bucket and plastic bottles. After some time, he was transferred to the territory of a former school in the village of Bryanka, where “there were armed people” who “said that they were from the Wagner PMC”.
As they said, the perimeter of the unit’s territory is mined, and whoever dares to go outside the territory without permission will be shot as an enemy, and he will be fired on without prejudice.
The soldier described the conditions of the unit as satisfactory on the whole. At the same time, the statement to the chief military prosecutor emphasized that no procedural documents were presented for detention, which can be considered an illegal deprivation of liberty. Military psychologists worked with the “refuseniks” in the camp and persuaded them to continue “participating in the special operation.”
A week later, all those detained were transferred to a third location, Perevalsk. There they were accommodated in the barracks of the colony, which were fenced with barbed wire. Conditions were poor (one meal a day). “There were about 140 people in the territory. Conversations about the inducement to continue participating in the special operation continued.”
Two days later, the military man and four other wounded men were summoned by the army doctor and told that they were being sent to the hospital.
The annexation continues
The phone codes for landlines in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic have been switched to the Russian format with the code +7 (856) as of August 1. A week earlier, a similar decision was implemented in the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic. Since June, the Russian code +7 has been used by mobile operators operating in the DNR and LNR, which allows residents of these regions to use mobile applications of Russian banks.
Well, maybe
VTsIOM published the results of a survey of Russians, which say that the level of basic scientific knowledge in Russia is declining.
While in 2007, one in seven Russians (14%) believed that the Sun rotates around the Earth, today 35% share this view.1 According to VTsIOM comments, a lower level of scientific knowledge is characteristic of those who watch more television.
The Kremlin propaganda won another victory against genetic engineering: Compared to 2014, the proportion of Russians who believe that GMO (genetically modified organisms) products will not help defeat hunger on Earth has increased by one-and-a-half times (from 38% to 55%)2.
26% of US citizens shared this opinion in 2012.
In July 2016, Vladimir Putin signed a law banning the cultivation and breeding of GMO products in Russia, except for expertise and research. In the Russian Food Security Doctrine, which Putin approved in early 2020, “preventing the importation into the Russian Federation of genetically engineered organisms for their sowing, cultivation, and breeding, as well as their circulation” is described as a long-term national interest. Nevertheless, the Russian government lifted all restrictions related to importing GMO products (including imported ones) for animal feed production (soybeans and soybean meal).