At some point Ukraine will surrender rather than have its people slaughtered and its cities and infrastructure destroyed. There would be no shame in that given that NATO will not intervene and the bravery already shown by Ukraine.
A surrender would be worse for Putin than a ceasefire and a settlement in exchange for a lifting of sanctions. Thoughts?
I know Ukrainians and I know the current government - they will not surrender. Maybe (???) they will leave Kyiv and move to Lviv but nobody within political elite accepts surrender.
Ukraine is a huge country and Russia will not be able to keep occupational administration. Many Ukrainians will become partizans continuing fighting.
There is no good end-game for Putin in any case. He has three options: 1) to intensify his offense, demolish Kyiv, oust Zelensky from the capital and put Yanukovich back. Troops go home, Putin declares victory. Very soon Yanukovich is ousted.2) Russia, seizing Kyiv, doesn't go home but continues invasion into Western Ukraine and gets stuck there. 3) Russia is not able to seize Kyiv and withdraw its troops back home leaving itself control over the Sea of Azov shore to Crimea territory (that is under Russia's control today).
I don't see in which of those scenarios sanctions will be removed
Thanks for the reply and thanks for your blog. Terrible situation where we have to hope that Putin will be toppled and Putin has to hope that enough destruction will open up a viable end game. Neither seems likely in the short term. But let's hope that our hope will happen.
At some point Ukraine will surrender rather than have its people slaughtered and its cities and infrastructure destroyed. There would be no shame in that given that NATO will not intervene and the bravery already shown by Ukraine.
A surrender would be worse for Putin than a ceasefire and a settlement in exchange for a lifting of sanctions. Thoughts?
I know Ukrainians and I know the current government - they will not surrender. Maybe (???) they will leave Kyiv and move to Lviv but nobody within political elite accepts surrender.
Ukraine is a huge country and Russia will not be able to keep occupational administration. Many Ukrainians will become partizans continuing fighting.
There is no good end-game for Putin in any case. He has three options: 1) to intensify his offense, demolish Kyiv, oust Zelensky from the capital and put Yanukovich back. Troops go home, Putin declares victory. Very soon Yanukovich is ousted.2) Russia, seizing Kyiv, doesn't go home but continues invasion into Western Ukraine and gets stuck there. 3) Russia is not able to seize Kyiv and withdraw its troops back home leaving itself control over the Sea of Azov shore to Crimea territory (that is under Russia's control today).
I don't see in which of those scenarios sanctions will be removed
Thanks for the reply and thanks for your blog. Terrible situation where we have to hope that Putin will be toppled and Putin has to hope that enough destruction will open up a viable end game. Neither seems likely in the short term. But let's hope that our hope will happen.