Support your point! Thank you! Surely, sanctions rarely reach their political goals immediately or in full. But even a parcial success (to gradually decrease fiscal revenues) is considered also a success. Expanding the import embargo on food and consumer goods is not a way, this would only consolidate people stronger around the flag. And let me additionally remark that sanctioned economies like, say, Iran can expand only nominally, under permanent downfalls and high inflation, they are gradually lagging behind the world average in terms of per capita GDP (according to the World Bank data in constant prices). So, sanctions are not an optimal tool but the only one (among peaceful means) to limit possible scales of aggressive behaviour.
I am far from a expert and well behind your experience so I too hesitate to make firm conclusions — although I have read comments from others who study/follow RUS “for a living”. They note a significant reduction in micro-chips of adequate complexity to be used in high-tech armaments. I base my opinions on theirs; always willing to hear alternative arguments.
RUS “leadership” distractions… it is a top-down system, especially in military command. The economy on the other hand as I understand it (and stand to be corrected), has been allowed to progress largely through Oligarchs without Putin’s direct intervention as long as ‘they’ don’t involve themselves in affairs of State/military — a “neat” arrangement.
Still, although Putin may not be involved in detail decisions, I expect he will be interested in what’s going on as the sentiments of the country can affect his hold on power. I wouldn’t see it occupying a significant portion of his time, but any distraction is…a distraction — and a welcome distraction in the eyes of UKR as he occupies himself with a 400+ day war that was expected to last a week(?), and not going particularly well at the moment either.
You’re dreaming. The only countries hurt by the sanctions are the Western countries. The BRICS nations are more solidified than ever and US hegemony is slipping away by the minute. The dollar is collapsing and metals are on the rise. Joe Biden and his handlers have squandered every advantage the West ever had. Rome is burning and Joes got his fiddle out and he’s eating an ice cream cone. It’s all over but the shouting. Trump could have saved the West (maybe) if they’d just let him but derangement syndrome prevented them from seeing the truth Lol. What a bunch of fucking morons. Every veteran from every war ever fought are spinning in their graves. The founding fathers look down on us and shake their heads in shame. We squandered everything they suffered for.
Good overview of sanctions -- but the effect of sanction-caused scarce micro-chip supply and the effect on “smart-missile” production wasn’t noted. It would seem this, at least from the Ukrainian perspective, would be an extremely important effect of sanctions.
Sanctions also provide “distraction” -- the country’s leadership needs to address other issues in the economy rather than devote their full attention to the war.
Sanctions neither win wars nor change regimes by themselves (as noted), they undermine the warring country’s ability to prosecute the war -- at least not as effectively as they could have without sanctions.
I share your questions, and would like to answer them though have no real information. Moreover, all I read about micro-chips supply to Russia doesn't allow me to make any judgements on effect of particular sanctions.
As to "distraction", I'm not sure Russian dictator needs to dedicating all his time to the war. To a certain extent, he gets fun by solving many individual issues - he is good in tactical solutions though has no strategic vision that is needed for the war. And BTW, usually during the crisis the bureaucratic pressure on Russian business diminishes. From what I see, it happens this time as well
Interesting. You mentioned Russia's debt to GDP ratio of less than 20%. That sounds pretty good compared to the US and UK - United States's is officially reported as having a debt-to-GDP ratio of 122% by the IMF. In the UK it's over 78%. Also, inflation here in the west has pretty much sky-rocketed. By all accounts food and gas prices certainly seem a lot more expensive here in the west than they are in Russia. Are you sure sanctions haven't in fact backfired?
Извините, изначально готовил этот текст на английском, т.к. ориентировался на западную аудиторию. Не уверен, что на русском языке такой текст востребован
Support your point! Thank you! Surely, sanctions rarely reach their political goals immediately or in full. But even a parcial success (to gradually decrease fiscal revenues) is considered also a success. Expanding the import embargo on food and consumer goods is not a way, this would only consolidate people stronger around the flag. And let me additionally remark that sanctioned economies like, say, Iran can expand only nominally, under permanent downfalls and high inflation, they are gradually lagging behind the world average in terms of per capita GDP (according to the World Bank data in constant prices). So, sanctions are not an optimal tool but the only one (among peaceful means) to limit possible scales of aggressive behaviour.
Appreciate your reply!
I am far from a expert and well behind your experience so I too hesitate to make firm conclusions — although I have read comments from others who study/follow RUS “for a living”. They note a significant reduction in micro-chips of adequate complexity to be used in high-tech armaments. I base my opinions on theirs; always willing to hear alternative arguments.
RUS “leadership” distractions… it is a top-down system, especially in military command. The economy on the other hand as I understand it (and stand to be corrected), has been allowed to progress largely through Oligarchs without Putin’s direct intervention as long as ‘they’ don’t involve themselves in affairs of State/military — a “neat” arrangement.
Still, although Putin may not be involved in detail decisions, I expect he will be interested in what’s going on as the sentiments of the country can affect his hold on power. I wouldn’t see it occupying a significant portion of his time, but any distraction is…a distraction — and a welcome distraction in the eyes of UKR as he occupies himself with a 400+ day war that was expected to last a week(?), and not going particularly well at the moment either.
You’re dreaming. The only countries hurt by the sanctions are the Western countries. The BRICS nations are more solidified than ever and US hegemony is slipping away by the minute. The dollar is collapsing and metals are on the rise. Joe Biden and his handlers have squandered every advantage the West ever had. Rome is burning and Joes got his fiddle out and he’s eating an ice cream cone. It’s all over but the shouting. Trump could have saved the West (maybe) if they’d just let him but derangement syndrome prevented them from seeing the truth Lol. What a bunch of fucking morons. Every veteran from every war ever fought are spinning in their graves. The founding fathers look down on us and shake their heads in shame. We squandered everything they suffered for.
Did shitty AI write this?
Thanks for this look behind the curtain, you've done a great job here. I'll be staying tuned for more.
Good overview of sanctions -- but the effect of sanction-caused scarce micro-chip supply and the effect on “smart-missile” production wasn’t noted. It would seem this, at least from the Ukrainian perspective, would be an extremely important effect of sanctions.
Sanctions also provide “distraction” -- the country’s leadership needs to address other issues in the economy rather than devote their full attention to the war.
Sanctions neither win wars nor change regimes by themselves (as noted), they undermine the warring country’s ability to prosecute the war -- at least not as effectively as they could have without sanctions.
I share your questions, and would like to answer them though have no real information. Moreover, all I read about micro-chips supply to Russia doesn't allow me to make any judgements on effect of particular sanctions.
As to "distraction", I'm not sure Russian dictator needs to dedicating all his time to the war. To a certain extent, he gets fun by solving many individual issues - he is good in tactical solutions though has no strategic vision that is needed for the war. And BTW, usually during the crisis the bureaucratic pressure on Russian business diminishes. From what I see, it happens this time as well
Interesting. You mentioned Russia's debt to GDP ratio of less than 20%. That sounds pretty good compared to the US and UK - United States's is officially reported as having a debt-to-GDP ratio of 122% by the IMF. In the UK it's over 78%. Also, inflation here in the west has pretty much sky-rocketed. By all accounts food and gas prices certainly seem a lot more expensive here in the west than they are in Russia. Are you sure sanctions haven't in fact backfired?
Yes, I', sure. Inflation in the West started well before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and any sanctions were imposed on Russia.
Извините, изначально готовил этот текст на английском, т.к. ориентировался на западную аудиторию. Не уверен, что на русском языке такой текст востребован